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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (7939)	6/9/2007 10:32:51 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Falcon, Thanks for those great charts. It seems to confirm my suspicion that Tech rallies along with the USD. Looking at the USD from 1996-2001, we can clearly find a correlation in that one particular instance. But I'm not old enough, I guess, to identify a previous "tech bubble" earlier and correlate it with movement of the USD, so it could be statistical fluke. As for the Yen, that is interesting.. So you think it will break out to the upside within 5 years or so? That would seem to correlate with the demographic projections of 1 in 4 Japanese being over 65. So will it fail under the weight of the tremendous Japanese national debt and the risk of pensioners extracting deposits to live on. Or does it indicate a major depression/recession on the way similar to what occurred in the '90's? And yes, it might be worth looking at short positions in the other currencies. Also, with the XAD, it would seem interesting to theorize if that will deflate some of the exuberance for Uranium prices since a top in that currency should translate to a currency arbitrage (Australia being a major supplier of Uranium). I just LOVE to think to about all of these correlations.. ;0) Hawk

To: nspolar who wrote (7939)	6/12/2007 12:10:13 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Falcon, great charts. As I guess we know the USD index chart could have another move up similar in magnitude to the rally from just over 80 in Dec 2004 to the 92 area which was achieved towards the end of the year in 2005. We've got to seriously respect the numerous lows made in the 80.00 area the past dozen years or so. A material downward penetration of the 80.00 support would be very bearish. However, right now it's looking like the USD will trend higher over the next couple of Quarters. and How about the spread in the 2 and 10 year note going from a negative 3 on May 29th to a plus 21 basis points this past week before settling around plus 15 basis points. The steepest spread in about a year.