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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (66041)	6/11/2007 7:54:08 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, if you are talking about Brian's trendline being curve fitting, that's bias. To draw correct trendlines, you need to follow the same rules all the time. The rules are, connect two consecutive highs or two consecutive lows at the price extreme. That trendline of Brian's started at the top of the 1981 highs and magically sliced through the upper part of the 1984 highs so he could make the line appear closer to the 1994, 2000, and 2004 highs. He did something different with the line through the 1980 and 1986 lows, making it appear closer to the 1993 and 2003 lows. He actually started below the 1980 lows, slced through the 1986 lows, but somehow magically made the line tag the 1998 and 2003 lows. Well that's completely biased. The ends justify the means, I guess. There are no consistent rules he is following to draw those lines other than making them illustrate a bias. The bias is a 26-year trendline and range has been broken, and that supported your case why bonds went up last week after remaining inside a range that the chart illustrated had held for 26-years. As I have mentioned and illustrated before, that bias is incorrect. The 26-year downtrend remains quite intact, by a pretty long ways. I would be happy to hear the rules he is using to draw his trendlines and how they applied consistently by technicians. As you know, I am not new at this.

To: mishedlo who wrote (66041)	6/11/2007 9:18:17 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 116555

It's no coincidence that the range for bonds (I'm assuming 30-year bonds) quoted by Bill Gross at Pimco is 4% to 6.5%. Looking at the monthly chart going back to 1980, you can see the main falling resistance line (trendline) out of the 1980 highs is at 6.5% next month. There's also a double top at 6.75% with the 2000 highs. That makes it pretty formidible resistance. stockcharts.com The 4% range is bound by the 2003 and 2005 lows. It looks like Pimco and I use the same methods for drawing trendlines.