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Technology Stocks : ASML Holding NV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: niek who wrote (1395)6/11/2007 12:59:41 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 43609
 
Bachman notes that spot pricing for DDR2 memory has dropped 70% year to date, and that prices are at or near the cash cost to manufacture the chips in 300 mm fabs. “If price remain low, manufacturers will likely delay or cancel plans for expansion,” he says. Bachman notes that there have been order push outs from both Hynix and Samsung, and that “second-tier DRAM
manufacturers such as ProMOS are at significant risk of reducing spending.”

1.) Though I can't argue about the 70% drop his view is IMHO deliberately distorted by quoting year to date - actually I find it misleading - fortunately there are people who track pricing over a longer period of time.
He is not the only analyst who deliberately focuses on year to date.

dramexchange.com

2.) I am not familiar with the term cash cost - I suppose he's refering to variable cost.
or near the cash cost to manufacture the chips in 300 mm fabs
Question: what's the state of 200mm commodity fabs?
Must be pretty bad

3.) No more talk about NAND glut lately - but Apple needs cheap NAND for their i phones

4.) He likes ASML but does not like CYMI - why?

5.) After two strong DRAM quarters it does not really come as surprise that DRAM is pulling back



To: niek who wrote (1395)6/11/2007 1:10:07 PM
From: etchmeister  Respond to of 43609
 
Thanks for posting this - to me it's very helpful how the sell side analyst community thinks.