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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (82652)	6/13/2007 4:03:53 AM
From: pogohere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish has cited a number of respectable sources that support his view. We're all free to accept him and them or not. . . . you could take those sources on: how 'bout Issing? Stern? Kasriel? Faber? Duisenberg? Examine their ideas and show where and how they are wrong. We know you don't agree. So what else can you add? from: Message 23620635 I'm challenging you to take on the parties cited above, or any others who share their view, and show why you think they're wrong. (I don't happen to agree that you have represented Mish's views accurately, but that's a separate issue that I don't intend to deal with here so as to avoid being distracted from the point I am raising.) So give it a try: no, not the fact that you are challenging Mish, but why he and others who think the way they do are wrong. If, as far as you're concerned, you've exhausted the subject and stated your case, so be it.

To: GST who wrote (82652)	6/13/2007 10:37:13 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

'Any discussion of an issue this serious to those of us interested in the economy and investments should never let a blog like that go unchallenged. If Mish Blogs to promote this view, I will challenge it. I would post this on Mish's thread, but Mish does not allow anybody to challenge his views. If you don't buy the party line he bans you.' The cash is king, widespread deflationary debt cleansing collapse with tapped out consumers in soup lines only seems to be working in isolated situations as certain assets crash and burn.. Certainly a depression for some folks tied to RE in parts of Florida, Arizona and California when you have a drop in prices and new home permit activity to the extent seen of late but it has not spread to the general economy as much as I would have thought.. I watch SW Florida now going through a slump reminiscent of the period leading into the great depression to see how this unfolds for clues to the future on a national scale. Other than that folks could only afford a tent in Deflationary Danville or a hood house in Detroit these days if they'd been playing the deflation card the past 4-5 years given where costs of living for most of the country as well as what the stock market has done in that time.. I'm tired of having to work so hard to make a few bucks on puts even though I only do it in certain instances and am not a perma doom and gloom guy. These long term perma bears would be wiped out by now if they'd actually put all their money where their mouth is.. Hilarious to see Mish proudly pound his chest in calling something right once in a while on his blog.. A broken clock is right twice a day and can continue being right as long as the author still has a pulse and only plays with monopoly money.. Meanwhile some us want the real answers and have real money to place without trying to find our place in history in calling Armageddon..

To: GST who wrote (82652)	6/13/2007 2:30:53 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

This is why I like the old Wittgenstein quote, which points towards the importance of reality-testing: "The World is all that is the case." While I certainly think its interesting to study money supply, the effort to totally divorce such studies from real world economic behavior is without question a serious intellectual mistake. Moreover, this is once again a failed attempt to make a "science" of money when of course there is no such science. Economics is of course a social science. And inflation is a behavioral phenomenon as all economic activity is of course ultimately behavioral (and also psychological). So the true economist observes money supply and considers money supply, but of course always sees how it plays out, in the real world. To do otherwise would mean you could write a Chapter of an economic history book called the Great Inflation when no such inflation ever broke out into society, or into an economy. Interesting. But, not Economics. Anyway, GST, I would suggest as you have long since been a member of the reality based community, to stop wasting your efforts on those who are not. These conversations have been recycled more than several times. I was making the same points in 2004 about Japan being a poor comparison to the US, about the lack of any US savings to support or invest in US bonds, and so on. Presently as I am sure you would agree, we just got a nice warning shot on the rising rates that could unfold over a depressed dollar, and, a housing market about to make its next leg down. That is indeed the nasty witches brew you began to warn about at least 18 months ago. Well done. Gregor (formerly posting as lambeth-palace) Wittgenstein: iep.utm.edu