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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (66195)6/15/2007 12:36:42 AM
From: Asymmetric  Respond to of 116555
 
Subprime Woes Pinch Bear's Mortgage Star
Risky Fund's Big Loss Forces a Bond Auction; Goldman Profit Diverges
By KATE KELLY and SERENA NG
June 15, 2007; Page C1

At a financial conference in late February, Ralph Cioffi, a senior hedge-fund manager for Wall Street firm Bear Stearns Cos., said that a meltdown in the subprime-mortgage market was "unlikely to occur."

He spoke too soon.

Five days after the conference, an index tracking subprime mortgages, the riskiest piece of the mortgage market, fell to its lowest point ever. And in recent months, the riskier of the two funds he runs for Bear Stearns, the $600 million High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, tumbled in value amid a surge in home-mortgage defaults.

Mr. Cioffi, 51 years old, has been at Bear for 22 years and is a mortgage-market veteran. But his riskier fund lost nearly one-fourth of its value in the first four months of this year. In recent days, lenders led by Goldman Sachs and Bank of America began making margin calls on the fund, requesting additional cash or collateral.

Yesterday, seeking to raise the cash, Mr. Cioffi's funds auctioned off nearly $4 billion in some of their highest-quality mortgage bonds. The auction went smoothly, but now Cioffi's funds are left holding riskier investments that could be harder to sell. Wall Street was watching the sale closely yesterday, fearing the market could soon be flooded with low-quality mortgage securities in the weeks to come.

Whether the Bear sale raised enough money to meet redemption requests and margin calls -- requests from lenders for additional cash or collateral -- remains to be seen. Late yesterday, a number of creditors for the two funds met with its managers, but the outcome of the meeting wasn't known.

The downturn in the subprime market spilled over into Bear's fiscal second-quarter earnings yesterday. The firm posted lower-than-expected earnings of $362 million, or $2.52 a share, for its second fiscal quarter, which ended May 31. After adjusting for a $227 million write-down on Bear's exchange-floor trading business, the firm earned $3.40 a share, 9% lower than the same period last year and 10 cents lower than analyst expectations.

Contrasting with Bear's woes, Goldman, which has less exposure to the mortgage market, beat analyst expectations by a significant margin. Buoyed by robust investment-banking activity and growth overseas, Goldman reported a profit of $2.33 billion, or $4.93 a share, a 1% rise from the same period last year and 14 cents a share above analyst estimates of $4.79 a share.

Yet, both Goldman and Bear yesterday sounded one common chord: that continued troubles in the mortgage market remain a big worry.

With the sort of weakness investors are seeing in the subprime market, "there's no hedging strategy you're going to be able to employ that's going to completely immunize you," said Sam Molinaro, Bear's chief financial officer, in an interview. Investors have made big profits on subprime loans in recent years, and losses on risky mortgage loans "are to be expected," he added. "While you don't like to have them, it's a fact of life in the business."

In a call with reporters, Goldman finance chief David Viniar was even blunter. "I don't think we've seen the bottom" of the subprime problems, he said.

Bear, which is known for its tough risk controls, has so far been unable to navigate its way out of the turmoil. This raises the specter that other Wall Street funds are sitting on big losses that could crop up in the days and weeks ahead. Bear itself and a handful of top firm executives have only $40 million invested in Mr. Cioffi's funds, with the rest of the money belonging to clients.

Bear's $4 billion auction was well-received by the market, according to mortgage traders, with a number of parties bidding for the portfolio of high-grade assets at prices fairly close to the loans' estimated values. The bidders included brokers, managers of collateralized debt obligations and some hedge funds.

In a sign of the market's stability, Merrill Lynch & Co. launched an offering of roughly $1.6 billion of new securities backed by subprime loans. It generated significant investor interest, according to one market participant.

Bear is selling 150 different bonds from the two of Mr. Cioffi's funds. One of the funds had around $600 million in equity and $6 billion in loans to finance its bets. The other fund had more than $1 billion in investments, and the amount of leverage it has is unclear.

The assets on the block yesterday were the most stable and liquid ones, with very strong credit ratings of double-A and triple-A -- meaning they have a very low risk of default. These assets, which are essentially bonds backed by thousands of home loans, have largely maintained their market value over the past few months and weren't the cause of the losses in the Bear funds.

From January to the end of April, the fund with $600 million in equity has lost 23% of its value. The other fund, which is less leveraged, is down about 5%.

The funds still own a number of collateralized-debt obligations, pools of hundreds of mortgage-backed bonds. CDO securities, unlike the assets they hold, are less liquid and hard to trade or price in the secondary market.

Goldman, meanwhile, reported its slowest profit growth in three quarters, as net revenue, revenue minus interest expense, from its important fixed-income business fell 24% to $3.37 billion in the second quarter. Investment-banking net revenue rose 13% to $1.72 billion. Overall, the firm reported net revenue of $10.18 billion, down 1% from the year-earlier level.

Bear's Fund Is Facing Mortgage Losses
Bond Sale Set for Today in Attempt to Raise Cash;
Woes Could Be Another Sobering Sign for Market
By KATE KELLY and SERENA NG
June 14, 2007; Page C1

A hedge fund managed by Bear Stearns Cos. is scrambling to sell large amounts of mortgage securities, a setback for a Wall Street firm known for its savvy debt-market trading.

The fund makes bets on bonds backed by mortgages, many of which are subprime, meaning they go to especially risky borrowers.

Faced with losses on its investments, the fund, called High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, together with a sister fund, is trying to sell about $4 billion in mortgage-backed bonds to raise cash, according to people close to the fund and traders who have been solicited to buy the bonds.

The sales represent a sliver of the $7 trillion residential-mortgage-backed bond market, but it is still a large amount to be sold at one time and a potentially troubling sign for the broader mortgage-backed bond market.

In a separate matter, Bear, a feisty company run with a hands-on approach by Chairman and Chief Executive James Cayne, has also been arguing with other hedge funds over its trading desk's dealings in the mortgage-backed securities market. In part because it is exposed to the mortgage-bond business, Bear is expected by analysts to report a 6% drop in fiscal second-quarter earnings today, compared with a year earlier. (More on Bear and mortgages in Breakingviews.)

Bids for the sale of bonds are due at 10 a.m. EDT today -- shortly after Bear announces its results.

Late Tuesday, Wall Street traders began circulating a list of mortgage assets that Bear had put on the block, according to email exchanges reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. On the list were roughly 150 of the funds' most easily traded, investment-grade bonds, which are backed by subprime mortgages. The estimated value of the bonds ranges from $1 million to nearly $110 million apiece.

Yesterday, Bear directors convened for a regularly scheduled board meeting, during which they were briefed on the fund's performance and outlook. Two people familiar with the situation said if the sale isn't a success, the Enhanced Leverage Fund could ultimately be shut down.

Bear's Limited Exposure

The Bear fund, which was down 23% in value in the year through April, has more than $6 billion in assets. Bear's own exposure to it is limited. The firm and some of its executives have invested just $40 million in the fund, meaning Bear isn't likely to be hit deeply by losses if the fund's problems mount.

Other investors include wealthy individuals and other hedge funds. It is run by Ralph Cioffi, a Bear mortgage-bond veteran.

The mortgage-bond market has been a key source of profit for Wall Street, which has gone beyond simply packaging and trading these bonds to owning subprime lenders themselves and starting up hedge funds that focus on the sector.

After several years of playing heavily in the market for subprime mortgages, players like Bear now contend with falling home prices and a rise in late or missed payments on some of the shakiest mortgages. Investor concerns about these developments have led them to sell some mortgage-backed bonds, putting downward pressure on portfolios like the one run by Bear.

Bear isn't alone. Early last month, the Swiss bank UBS AG shut down Dillon Read Capital Management, an internal hedge fund, after bad trades in mortgages led to a $124 million loss.

Lots of Leverage

The Bear fund, only 10 months old, is highly levered, meaning that in addition to raising money from investors, it borrows heavily to fund its investments.

Launched last year, the fund quickly raised more than $600 million in investments, much of which was put toward the purchase of mortgage-backed securities.

Combined with around $6 billion in borrowing from a dozen major Wall Street players, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., it has assets in excess of $6 billion. Goldman and Bank of America declined to comment. The sister fund, which uses less leverage, was launched four years ago and goes by a similar name, High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund.

A person familiar with the situation said the fund is liquidating positions to free up cash for redemptions and to prepare for likely margin calls. A margin call is when a bank asks for repayment of its loans or more collateral as its borrowers' investments fall in value.

Last month, Bear blocked some investors from taking money out of the fund.

The fund is part of Bear's internal asset-management unit.

A Rocky Quarter

Analysts are bracing for a rocky quarter and have been edging down their forecasts for the big brokerage over the past month or so, according to data provider Thomson Financial. So far this year, Bear's stock has fallen 8% compared with a rise of about 2% for the broader Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. Financial Services Index.

As for some of its peers, Goldman is up 16% so far this year and Lehman, which also has a big exposure to the mortgage market, is down 1.1%.

Bear is a bit of an anomaly on Wall Street. As financial firms like Citigroup Inc. have built their firms through acquisitions or by significantly pushing into new business lines, from insurance to retail banking, Bear remains a singular Wall Street bond house. It is known for tight cost and risk controls and has managed to avoid a major trading blowup over the years.

The latest mortgage woes seem to be hitting the broader market.

ABX's Decline

An index tied to risky subprime bonds has in recent days plunged to lows last seen in late February. Traders say the dive in the index, called the ABX, was triggered by reports of rising delinquencies and foreclosures and a steep rise in long-term bond yields.

Rising interest rates could make it more difficult for homeowners to refinance their mortgages and could send more borrowers into default. The ABX index yesterday traded at around 62.5, down from 73 a month ago and a high of 97 early in the year, according to Markit, a data firm.

"There are concerns about investment vehicles that are seeing negative returns because of their subprime exposure," said Alex Pritchartt, a mortgage-derivatives trader at UBS Securities. "If some funds try to liquidate their portfolios and sell large blocks of securities, it could cause a backup in prices and spreads."

Bear Stearns Fund Hurt by Subprime Loans
By KATE KELLY and SERENA NG
June 12, 2007; Page C5

Hard hit by turmoil in the market for risky mortgages, a big Bear Stearns Cos. hedge fund has fallen 23% from the start of the year through late April, according to people familiar with the matter.

The performance was disclosed late last week in a letter to investors from executives at the Wall Street firm's asset-management division, these people say. The fund, called the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, is widely exposed to subprime mortgages, or home loans to borrowers with weak credit histories, these people add. It has $600 million under management, but as the fund's name suggests, it borrows heavily to make bigger bets. A spokeswoman for Bear Stearns wouldn't comment on the fund's performance.

While the fund is down significantly, it is hard to tell what the actual losses will be because a few good trades could bring it back into the clear. Still, given the fund's heavy exposure to this deteriorating corner of the mortgage market, in which many people are struggling to pay down their home loans, the news isn't good. Recently, the fund prevented some investors from pulling their cash.

Limited Impact on Bear

While the year-to-date performance of the leveraged fund is a blow for its managers, Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, the paper losses will have a limited impact on Bear, two people close to the situation say.

The brokerage and a group of individual executives have invested about $40 million in the fund, according to someone familiar with the matter.

The majority of the $600 million under management comes from outside investors such as hedge funds and wealthy individuals.

Trouble for Everquest IPO

Some market participants predict the fund's downturn could have a chilling effect on Bear's planned initial public offering of Everquest Financial Ltd., a holding company that contains risky assets from some Bear Stearns hedge funds, including the one with recent losses. Everquest is run, in part, by Mr. Cioffi.

Everquest was formed last fall when two credit hedge funds transferred some of their riskiest assets into the new entity.

In return, the funds received a majority stake in Everquest, which was valued at $400 million, plus nearly $149 million in cash, according to regulatory filings submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission last month.



To: mishedlo who wrote (66195)6/16/2007 9:28:57 PM
From: Broken_Clock  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Some Buyers Grow Web-Weary, and Online Sales Lose Steam

By MATT RICHTEL and BOB TEDESCHI
SAN FRANCISCO, June 16 — Has online retailing entered the Dot Calm era?

Since the inception of the Web, online commerce has enjoyed hypergrowth, with annual sales increasing more than 25 percent over all, and far more rapidly in many categories. But in the last year, growth has slowed sharply in major sectors like books, tickets and office supplies.

Growth in online sales has also dropped dramatically in diverse categories like health and beauty products, computer peripherals and pet supplies. Analysts say it is a turning point and growth will continue to slow through the decade.

The reaction to the trend is apparent at Dell, which many had regarded as having mastered the science of selling computers online, but is now putting its PCs in Wal-Mart stores. Expedia has almost tripled the number of travel ticketing kiosks it puts in hotel lobbies and other places that attract tourists.

The slowdown is the result of several forces. Sales on the Internet are expected to reach $116 billion this year, or 5 percent of all retail sales, making it harder to maintain the same high growth rates. At the same time, consumers seem to be experiencing Internet fatigue and are changing their buying habits.

John Johnson, 53, who sells medical products to drug stores and lives in San Francisco, finds that retailers have livened up their stores to be more alluring.

“They’re working a lot harder,” he said as he shopped at Book Passage in downtown San Francisco. “They’re not as stuffy. The lighting is better. You don’t get someone behind the counter who’s been there 40 years. They’re younger and hipper and much more with it.”

He and his wife, Liz Hauer, 51, a Macy’s executive, also shop online, but mostly for gifts or items that need to be shipped. They said they found that the experience could be tedious at times. “Online, it’s much more of a task,” she said. Still, Internet commerce is growing at a pace that traditional merchants would envy. But online sales are not growing as fast as they were even 18 months ago.

Forrester Research, a market research company, projects that online book sales will rise 11 percent this year, compared with nearly 40 percent last year. Apparel sales, which increased 61 percent last year, are expected to slow to 21 percent. And sales of pet supplies are on pace to rise 30 percent this year after climbing 81 percent last year.

Growth rates for online sales are slowing down in numerous other segments as well, including appliances, sporting goods, auto parts, computer peripherals, and even music and videos. Forrester says that sales growth is pulling back in 18 of the 24 categories it measures.

Jupiter Research, another market research firm, says the growth rate has peaked. It projects that overall online sales growth will slow to 9 percent a year by the end of the decade from as much as 25 percent in 2004.

Early financial results from e-commerce companies bear out the trend. EBay reported that revenue from Web site sales increased by just 1 percent in the first three months of this year compared with the same period last year. Bookings from Expedia’s North American Web sites rose by only 1 percent in the first quarter of this year. And Dell said that revenue in the Americas — United States, Canada and Latin America — for the three months ended May 4 was $8.9 billion, or nearly unchanged from the same period last year.

“There’s a recognition that some customers like a more interactive experience,” said Alex Gruzen, senior vice president for consumer products at Dell. “They like shopping and they want to go retail.”

The turning point comes as most adult Americans, and many of their children, are already shopping online.

Analysts project that by 2011, online sales will account for nearly 7 percent of overall retail sales, though categories like computer hardware and software generate more than 40 percent of their sales on the Internet.

There are other factors at work as well, including a push by companies like Apple, Starbucks and the big shopping malls to make the in-store experience more compelling.

Nancy F. Koehn, a professor at Harvard Business School who studies retailing and consumer habits, said that the leveling off of e-commerce reflected the practical and psychological limitations of shopping online. She said that as physical stores have made the in-person buying experience more pleasurable, online stores have continued to give shoppers a blasé experience. In addition, online shopping, because it involves a computer, feels like work.

“It’s not like you go onto Amazon and think: ‘I’m a little depressed. I’ll go onto this site and get transported,’ ” she said, noting that online shopping is more a chore than an escape.

But Ms. Koehn and others say that online shopping is running into practical problems, too. For one, Ms. Koehn noted, online sellers have been steadily raising their shipping fees to bolster profits or make up for their low prices.

In response, a so-called clicks-and-bricks hybrid model is emerging, said Dan Whaley, the founder of GetThere, which became one of the largest Internet travel businesses after it was acquired by Sabre Holdings.

The bookseller Borders, for example, recently revamped its Web site to allow users to reserve books online and pick them up in the store. Similar services were started by companies like Best Buy and Sears. Other retailers are working to follow suit.

“You don’t realize how powerful of a phenomenon this new strategy has become,” Mr. Whaley said. “Nearly every big box retailer is opening it up.”

Barnes & Noble recently upgraded its site to include online book clubs, reader forums and interviews with authors. The company hopes the changes will make the online world feel more like the offline one, said Marie J. Toulantis, the chief executive of BarnesandNoble.com. “We emulate the in-store experience by having a book club online,” she said.

The retailers that have started in-store pickup programs, like Sears and REI, have found that customers who choose the hybrid model are more likely to buy additional products when they pick up their items, said Patti Freeman Evans, an analyst at Jupiter Research.

Consumers are generally not committed to one form of buying over the other. Maggie Hake, 21, a recent college graduate heading to Africa in the fall to join the Peace Corps, said that when she needs to buy something for her Macintosh computer, she prefers visiting a store. “I trust it more,” she said. “I want to be sure there’s a person there if something goes wrong.”

Ms. Hake, who lives in Kentfield, Calif., just north of San Francisco, does like shopping online for certain things, particularly shoes, which are hard to find in her size. “I’ve got big feet — size 12.5 in women’s,” she said. “I also buy textbooks online. They’re cheaper.”

John Morgan, an economics professor from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, said he expected online commerce to continue to increase, partly because it remains less than 1 percent of the overall economy. “There’s still a lot of head room for people to grow,” he said.
nytimes.com