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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5995)	6/15/2007 7:24:36 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24225

Hubbert's Peak, The Question of Coal, and Climate Change Dave Rutledge Chair, Division of Engineering and Applied Science California Institute of Technology Currently there is a vigorous debate about fossil-fuel production, and whether it will be sufficient in the future. At the same time, there is an intense effort to predict the contribution to future climate change that will result from consuming this fuel. There has been surprisingly little effort to connect these two. Do we have a fossil-fuel supply problem? Do we have a climate-change problem? Do we have both? Which comes first? We will see that trends for future fossil-fuel production are less than any of the 40 UN scenarios considered in climate-change assessments. The implication is that producer limitations could provide useful constraints in climate modeling. We will also see that the time constants for fossil-fuel exhaustion are about an order of magnitude smaller than the time constants for sea level and sea-level change. This means that to lessen the effects of climate change associated with future fossil-fuel use, reducing ultimate production is more important than slowing it down. Power-Point Slides (2MB) and Excel Spreadsheet (2MB) Video from Talk at the University of California at San Diego, May 11, 2007 (Lower resolution on You Tube) rutledge.caltech.edu