Even if terror video is genuine, questions remain
Ian MacLeod, CanWest News Service
Published: Tuesday, June 19, 2007
canada.com
OTTAWA -- Though the Canadian and U.S. governments publicly downplay the threat, intelligence officials today are working to authenticate a purported Taliban video showing hundreds of celebrating trainees "graduating" for suicide bombing missions in Canada, the U.S. and Europe.
If confirmed, security analysts will be tasked with advising governments on what the video represents: A legitimate warning of attacks, which Islamic law requires of jihadists? A strategic deception to draw away Western security resources from genuine terror plots? Or propaganda to stoke public fear and boost the morale of supporters?
The Taliban recently merged its propaganda and field operations with the global al-Qaida terror network and is moving its war outside the boundaries of Afghanistan and onto a global scale.
"As we have a counter-terrorism coalition, they have a jihadist coalition," said Martin Rudner, director of the Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies at Carleton University. "That's worrisome because we know they're sharing tradecraft. We know they're sharing networking," and the video should, "be taken very seriously."
Shot by an invited Pakistani journalist June 9 somewhere in the Afghan-Pakistan border region and broadcast by ABC News, the footage shows a large group of about 300 masked men -- including some boys appearing as young as 12 -- attending a "graduation ceremony" before apparently being dispatched by al-Qaida and Afghanistan's Taliban movement on suicide missions to Canada, the United States, Britain and Germany.
Mansoor Dadullah, brother of the former Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah, who was killed last month, is seen attending the ceremony. He addresses the seated recruits as guards with rocket launchers stand by.
"These Americans, Canadians, British and Germans come here to Afghanistan from faraway places. Why shouldn't we go after them?" he said, referring to countries with forces patrolling Afghanistan since the Taliban was ousted in 2001.
"Praise be to God that the enthusiasm of these people is so strong that the people are going by crowds to martyrdom and to sacrifice themselves."
One photo taken from the video and posted on the ABC News website shows a group of more than a dozen masked figures purportedly assigned to attack Canadian targets. Other photos show "brigades" tasked with assaults against the United States, Britain and Germany.
Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day characterized the video Tuesday as a, "PR move on behalf of a terror organization.
"While we're not immune from threats and no system is 100 per cent perfect, we feel confident that people coming from a group like that would be detected," he said. "Their capability, personally, is limited, because there is a lot of internal intelligence that points out who certain individuals are and they do have a limited ability to travel and get through our border systems."
His comments appear to dismiss the possibility some of the trainee bombers in the video could, if genuine, be Canadians, who could easily return home.
Russ Kanocke, a spokesman for the U.S. Homeland Security department, added there is "no credible intelligence to suggest an imminent threat to the homeland at this time. We have known for some time that al-Qaida and affiliated networks have a desire to strike Western interests."
Jack Williams, a law professor and expert in Islamic law at Georgia State University and special adviser to the U.S. government on intelligence and security issues, said "that this is something that's worth consideration but there should not be an exaggerated response to it. You have to take steps to authenticate it."
Western intelligence experts are now pouring over the video. Some will examine the way the figures are dressed, their mannerism and accents.
"Ultimately, if you're able to identify some of the people that are present by a score of different metrics and then happen to be able to cross reference those with folks on known [terrorist] lists that are being maintained by the West, then you start to get a little more concerned and a little more interested," said Williams.
Others will study the topography, flora and other geographic features on the video.
But even if the region can be confirmed, it will still be a big leap to pinpoint the specific location, said Williams.
And even if the video is deemed authentic, what does it mean?
There is a long history of deception in Islamic warfare, a doctrine called taqiyya or religiously sanctioned dissimulation to protect one's faith or its adherents, he said. Could the video be an act of deception designed to induce the West to chase ghosts and waste assets while the real attacks go undetected?
"So, even if you know you can't effectuate a particular attack, you can take preliminary steps that might not constitute a crime under Canadian law but, notwithstanding, would have enough indicators that your intelligence services and the RCMP would get interested ... and dedicate resources and assets.
"If you can populate a given area with a handful of these deceptive acts, then you can start to drain considerably away from your intelligence service and your law enforcement and that increases the likelihood of the actual attack taking place.
"This could very well be that case." |
