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Politics : THE WHITE HOUSE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (5791)	6/20/2007 7:42:59 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25737

Bloomberg is highly regarded by the business community and Wall Street. I think he will certainly draw some from Hillary, but if there was a choice between Rudy G. and Michael B. about managing the economy and recognizing business' objectives, I think Bloomberg would win hands down and could draw some of the "old money" votes away from the Republicans. Then there would be the "don't vote for Bloomberg because it will mean electing Hillary" blowback...so who knows who ultimately benefits. Now, without a big party nomination in his pocket I don't know what this means, but New York loves Bloomberg more, I think, than it loved Rudy. If he can translate that out into some States nationally.....interesting

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (5791)	6/21/2007 9:30:13 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25737

Re: "if Bloomberg runs, he's going to take votes away from shrillary," Yes, I agree (as I've mentioned in talking with Goldie)... that is, if she is the nominee: "who would he hurt most?" There is a lot of speculation about just that --- and I've seen answers all over the place. Some say --- because of his 'liberal' social positions (gay marriage, gun control laws, etc.), and his years as a Dem, that he would draw much more from the Dem side. Others argue (and some polls claim to show) that --- possibly because of his great wealth, success in business, and electoral success as a Republican, and Authoritarian hard-nosed-Giuliani-ish management and pro-defense positions --- that he would draw more from the GOP side of the fence. Others --- and, IMO, this makes some sense --- say that *WHO'S goat gets gored the most depends more on how extreme* the respective Dem and Rep nominees actually are*. Perhaps if Clinton is the Dem nominee, Bloomberg would draw more Dem support... while if the GOP nominates a hard-right 'social conservative', or anyone who mostly appeals to the 'base' but not much to Independents in the middle, then Bloomberg might draw more of his support from the GOP. That's what makes it interesting! (Right now there is polling that shows him drawing support from both* big Parties --- GOPers in revolt over Bush, Iraq, etc., and Dems from the 'anybody but Hilary' camp --- which there are a lot of, in both cases.) The most interesting thing of all might be a general election where NEITHER Dem nor Rep nominee can lock down enough votes in the Electoral College for a win --- something that could be quite possible if Bloomberg could draw even half the 19% of Perot (and, right now that looks to be fairly easy with public dissatisfaction so extremely high....) This would throw the election to the House (to pick the President), and the Senate (to independently pick the Vice President) --- but here is the twist that a lot of people don't remember: EACH STATE (no matter how big), gets only ONE VOTE in the House, and ONE VOTE in the Senate! So, South Dakota or Alaska would have exactly as much influence as California or New York or Texas or Florida. :-) Under such circumstances ANYTHING could happen.... If Bloomberg threw his support to EITHER of the big Parties --- that would be enough to put their guy on top. (So, I suppose it might be possible for him to wind up as Vice President... or possibly even in the top job, if he played his cards well.) And, if he really were to forgo public financing and toss a BILLION DOLLARS into getting his message out --- he might up set a lot of establishment apple carts, especially if either of the big two parties' nominees were to stumble. (In NY, for example, New Yorkers two to one prefer him to their previous Mayor, Rudy... so Bloomberg probably can't be that bad as a politician....)