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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (75830)	6/25/2007 5:27:07 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Well, they need to crash rates now, even if it means stocks back to 200 DMA or a bit below. The housing market is too weak to survive a 50bp hike, so likely the Bear funds that blew up last week are just a tip of a huge iceberg. US abolished M3 is approaching 14%, and that's exactly the kind of printing pace Britain engaged in to turn their housing collapse last year -g- If rates don't come down, it will mean trouble for this market. 50bp hike in risk-free rate is on everything. You even pay that interest when you play the futures (on the total notional value of your long position) - the growth of SP needs to exceed the risk-free rate for a futures long position to turn a profit. If they succeed again, as they did in the past on numerous occasions, then off to the races again. -g-