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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (14124)	6/25/2007 4:31:27 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36917

Saying let's bet NYC will be 20 feet under water in 20 years is not only childish, but blatantly stupid. Here's one realistic bet. few people have asked about the details of the bet I've arranged with Bashkirtsev and Mashnich. Both Jim Giles (Nature) and David Adam (Guardian) basically got it right, but here it is again in full. We will compare global surface temperatures in 1998-2003 with those in 2012-2017 (6 year average in both cases), using the USA National Climatic Data Center data (which can currently be found here for annual and here for monthly analyses). (Update 13 Feb 2007: data seems to have moved to here.) If the temperature rises over this interval, B+M will pay me $10,000 (in total). If the temperature drops, I will pay them $10,000 (again, in total). julesandjames.blogspot.com Another Message 23592979 But beware... Attempted betting on global warming Like global warming skeptics Richard Lindzen and William M. GRAY, Michael's World Climate Report offered in late 1998 "to wager that the 10-year period beginning in January 1998 and extending through December 2007 will show a statistically significant downward trend in the monthly satellite record of global temperatures."[2] Climatologist James Annan,[3] who has offered multiple bets that global temperatures will increase,[4] learned of the offer in 2005 and contacted the Report to arrange a bet.[5] An editor from World Climate Report responded, reneging on the original bet offer and declining to make a new bet starting from the present. Message 22664144 ========= In November 2004, climate change skeptic Richard Lindzen was quoted saying he'd be willing to bet that the earth's climate will be cooler in 20 years than it is today. When British climate researcher James Annan contacted him, however, Lindzen would only agree to take the bet if Annan offered a 50-to-1 payout. Subsequent offers of a wager were also refused by Pat Michaels, Chip Knappenberger, Piers Corbyn, Myron Ebell, Zbigniew Jaworowski, Sherwood Idso and William Kininmonth. At long last, however, Annan has persuaded Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev to take a $10,000 bet. "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement," Annan says. "A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension." # posted by JT Davis : 3:31 PM balkin.blogspot.com