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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (277)	6/28/2007 7:56:15 PM
From: stan_hughes	Respond to of 71442

Interesting point re: how short term volatility measurements will be skewed to the downside in the next 2 weeks -- I am a total broken record on this, but let's get real about volatility here. Once this afternoon's excitement is in the books, then what? It's Friday, then a very abbreviated trading week, then all of a sudden it's July 9th. In other words, 11 days of time decay on options without the equivalent of 11 days worth of fluctuations. What we have seen the past week was a real honest to goodness volatility surge as Fear swept in. That may not evaporate so fast. What I would watch out for though is a statistical decline. In other words, traders are going to forward their calenders a bit and lower bids to offset the accelerated decay. The market could still bear a 15 volatility, but the lowered bids would give an illusion of a lower VIX than that adamsoptions.blogspot.com Nothing like a bit of smoke screen to help make the numbers look better -- better postpone that crash call (again)