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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (83215)	6/29/2007 5:59:12 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

PS. the dotbombs of the late 1990's and gold of the 1970's were isolated manias not due to any widespread lax lending filtering through the real economy.. You must not have been paying attention to this thread, or to the serial bear threads of the 1990s (Naked Truth, All Clowns Must Be Destroyed, CFZ, etc), or to the many articles by the likes of Doug Noland in the 1990s, not to mention the writings of goldbugs and hard money advocates from the 70s. Not every mania is simply a result of "lax lending". It certainly wasn't the cause of the current credit bubble. The dot-com bubble of the 1990s was clearly not an "isolated mania". The new calculation of the CPI (hedonic adjustment, chain weighting) began in 1995. Rubinomics was a deliberate juicing of the bond market, an appeasement of the "bond vigilantes". It spilled over into stocks, houses, Russian bonds, Asian currencies, and lots of other things except commodities. To say the the 70s gold bull was an "isolated mania" strains all credulity. Check out the price of sugar or rubber in the 1970s. Or look up Paul Ehrlich and the Club of Rome sometime. Or the Culture of Narcissism. And what do you think Paul Volcker did starting in late 1979 when he became Chairman of the Fed? And though you didn't mention it, what about the go-go stock mania of the 1960s, when the Dems controlled every branch of government by a huge margin? Were lending standards too lax then? The modern credit system and money markets were born in the 1960s. And a 30-year fixed mortgage was at 5% or so. One might even say the the late 1960s were a thrust upward and top of the post-war technocratic faith, and with it, a surge and top in the totems of the technocracy like conglomerates. I realize that these facts get in the way of your political narrative. Simply put, neither major party has been a guardian of sound money or an advocate of fiscal probity.