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To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 2:47:09 PM
From: Bearcatbob  Respond to of 206212
 
How about short bonds?



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 4:00:11 PM
From: 8bits  Respond to of 206212
 
OT : Agriculture

Other than DBA and SFD any ideas how to play this?

finance.yahoo.com

The first 5 are basically fertilizer manufacturers, MON and SYT are seed, herbicide, and fungicide producers. As you can see, all of the above companies have had quite a run in the past
year.

finance.yahoo.com

Bunge has an Ag, fertilizer, and consumer food division.

For wheat there's:

finance.yahoo.com
swp.com

A few Brazilian companies:

finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com

Argentina:

finance.yahoo.com



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 4:08:37 PM
From: Julius Wong  Respond to of 206212
 
Agricultural Chemicals
www2.barchart.com

Farm Construction Machnry
www2.barchart.com



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 6:25:08 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206212
 
DBA goes right straight to corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar.

For some reason, Merrill Lynch will not allow clients to buy DBA (according to Tom Pope). I wonder if that has to do with their decision some years ago to get entirely out of futures.

If anyone can figure out what could go wrong with DBA, other than a severe decline in prices for those commodities, I wish that person would tell me. I have very large positions in DBA.

Indirect investment in agriculture via fertilizer, farm equipment, etc., might work out, but such companies are always subject to competition. Large supplies of stranded natural gas could be converted to fertilizer in many remote locations, and China and India could manufacture their own equipment. I prefer as direct an investment as possible in the actual foodstuffs.



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 8:50:42 PM
From: Tommaso  Respond to of 206212
 
SFD?

Smithfield Foods?

Please clarify.



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 8:50:58 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206212
 
SFD?

Smithfield Foods?

Please clarify.



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 9:49:33 PM
From: LoneClone  Respond to of 206212
 
Here's my watch list of fertilizer stocks. (Do not mistake inclusion for endorsement.)

AGWS.PK ALM.V BLR.V CF FOS.V HF.TO ISX.V KMGB MAA.V MGO.V MOS POT.TO SVU.TO TRA VUL.V

Here's a good board for discussing them -- investorshub.com

LC



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/1/2007 11:06:34 PM
From: ChanceIs  Respond to of 206212
 
>>>agriculture is the way to go over the next few years.<<<

How about the trading houses handling the agricultural futures?? FCSX is up hugely - pardon if already discussed - my sense is that a similar symbol has been kicked around recently. I will be looking into shorting FCSX on the general theory that a correction is due. Snippet from Barrons:
__________________________________________________________

THE COINAGE "AGFLATION" IS NEWLY POPULAR. But this idea of runaway crop-and-meat price increases already has a bellwether stock, FCStone (ticker: FCSX), a commodity broker that helps farmers and processors hedge.

The Iowa company came public March 15 at $24 a share and by Friday had roared to 57.29, off a high above 62. The company is a direct play on ag-price volatility, has a fine franchise and is growing pretty nicely. It's roughly like GFI Group (GFIG), a credit-derivatives and commodity broker but with less electronic-trading leverage and lower margins. GFI took a year to go up 140% from its 2005 IPO, FCStone just 15 weeks.

Investors should hope the momentum crowd loses interest soon, bringing a needed shakeout in the stock so that it can be bought somewhere below its current valuation of 30 times fiscal 2008 forecast earnings and closer to GFI's 20.



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/2/2007 7:50:53 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206212
 
Verenium Corp (VRNM) -- this company is working toward commercializing celullosic ethanol (i.e., ethanol made from otherwise unusable biomass such as corn stalks, etc.). Not sure if this is the kind of company you were looking for Que, but I've been wanting to mention it here in the hopes that someone who would be more capable than I at evaluating the technical merits of this company can take a look at it, and let us know your thoughts.

I have a small position in it now, but have no way of really evaluating it's chances of success. They are at least a year or 2 away from any commercial success, as far I can tell.

The company is the result of a merger of a privately held company that was formed here in Cambridge by some MIT guys, and a public company called Diversa.



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)7/2/2007 11:45:39 AM
From: donc  Respond to of 206212
 
..there was an article in Barron's this weekend on a recent IPO that does commodity hedging..it's up quite a bit..don't have the paper with me..

donc



To: quehubo who wrote (87045)8/12/2007 9:27:45 PM
From: El Canadiense  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 206212
 
For those following Coxe´s calls on a regular basis, on food/agriculture, did he express any particular area of interest? I think he has mentioned grain, seeds....Fertilizers as well? Catch him mentioning NYSE:TSN and NYSE:SFD on last call(meat/poultry distributors). Any other names? TIA