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Strategies & Market Trends : LET'S PLAY IN THE FOREX..AND NOT GET LOST! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (174)	7/1/2007 7:24:04 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 247

Here is a commentary on the New Zealand Dollar. For the economists the picture is troubling: the Kiwi treasury is running a large account deficit (although it is smaller than expected). Historically the soft currencies (AUD, NZD) have been prone to steep drops because of weaknesses related to their deficits and high rates. The yield curve is inverted in the 1 to 10 years segment. Seen from the weak USD, an inverted yield curve also leads to devaluations of currencies. This has often been a precursor of a subsequent devaluation...., not appreciation. I continue to believe that the current momentum is a historical abberation not likely to repeated any time soon. Enjoy it while it lasts... >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> New highs for kiwi dollar Sponsored Links Get paid to receive text adverts South Is. Ski holidays from $279pp Now's the time. SEEK Jun 29, 2007 New highs for NZD/USD were scored overnight as Thursday's domestic data gave investors the confidence to shed their worries of the day before. The New Zealand current account deficit for the March quarter was NZD2.2 billion, smaller than expected and a continuation of the trend to closer balance. The previous quarter's deficit was also revised down, and the annual total to March came in at NZD13.9 billion. As a percentage of GDP this resulted in a drop to 8.5%, although we won't know the exact percentage until after today's release of the March quarter GDP data. Building consents for May showed a rise of 5.5% over April and a 1.9% rise over May last year. Even excluding the volatile apartment sector, the month's jump was 2.8%. Finally, the National Bank survey of business confidence recovered in June, with the prospect of juicy payouts to dairy farmers helping to lift sentiment. A net 14.8% of companies expected their own business to improve in the next year, up from 7.8% in May. As usual, respondents were more pessimistic about others than about themselves, but their general view of the economy for the coming year also improved. Inflation expectations also edged up. This trifecta of positive news drove the NZD higher, more than reversing yesterday's losses. The NZD/USD peaked at 0.7710 overnight to set another new high. NZ bonds New Zealand government bond yields were unchanged after the raft of data yesterday pointed to a stronger economy that will likely keep the RBNZ on a tightening bias. The New Zealand 2 year government bond was up 1 basis point to 7.32% and the 10 year bond was unchanged at 6.70%.<7b> Source: Bancorp Treasury