I will give you my personal take, nothing held back, within the limits imposed by fact that my laptop is kaput, just left Guiyang city, Guizhou province, now in Beijing, working on my PDA cellular phone.
Do we know, with conviction, what is coming our way?
Whenever in doubt, I re-read any one of the books recommended earlier, such as "fiat money inflation in france", devil takes the hindmost, etc.
I am at times uncertain on what is coming, but then calm down, taking stock of what had happened and what is happening; namely, slow, drip by drop monetary inflation, pumping up successive and now all assets to all time highs via eventually excessive credit creation, the common denominator of all financial (as opposed to simply economic) crisis.
What then is uncertain, to my occasionally hesitating and wandering mind, is when asset bubbles will blowup, and, the same uncertainty, from what level.
I try to allocate assets to my 'sleep' point when I am unsure about when.
Talking numbers, I am at 26% real estate, 16% physical gold and platinum, 2% bond, 46% cash (cad/aud/euro shifting toward yen/usd/hkd), and 10% shares (energy - uranium, oil sand, oil, gas - plus a bit of real estate, and starting stake in junior pm shares).
I am now very defensive, and so can sleep, only waiting for something dramatic to happen. It may be a long wait, and if so, what happens will be more dramatic.
You know my allocation, and so you know I am still rational, as opposed to a gold bug ;0)
Should you wish for some thrills, sell some shares and raise cash level, assuming the tax consequence is tolerable. Otherwise, do nothing, and stop watching the day to day noise of mark to market. What will likely happen will not be a day to day event but something dramatic.
Should I be forced to buy anything five things today, I would uranium mine cameco, gold etf, oil mine suncor, Samui Airport Property Fund (10% yield), and either Philippines share Ayala Land, or Hong Kong/China share Shenhua Coal, as a basket, yielding aggregate 3-3.5% depending on weighting, and then wait for kingdom come, without bothering to read news to mark-to-market on daily basis. |
