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To: Tommaso who wrote (87080)7/2/2007 1:57:11 PM
From: Tommaso  Respond to of 206214
 
OT: Taking the period 1 February to 1 July of 2007, and using September or October futures contracts for Corn, soybeans, sugar, and wheat, one might have expected a 5% overall gain for those four commodities. The gain for DBA is only 2.3%. However, if one had sold DBA on June 18, one would have had a 9% gain from 1 February.

The quote for DBA appears to undershoot and overshoot estimates for its fair value. Starting with positions of 25% for each commodity, the percentages before periodic rebalancing shows wide swings.

My idea is that over a period of a few years, a drop in the dollar and a growing demand for those four commodities may make DBA a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. I have done well up to this point on the assumption that people want to drive cars and heat their houses, and consider it a safe assumption that people want to eat.



To: Tommaso who wrote (87080)7/2/2007 3:58:28 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206214
 
Thanks, but I know of no other way that I can buy directly into agricultural commodities,

You can now buy commodity futures on E*Trade. I don't do them, so I have no idea if it is a good idea. But it is an option for you to consider.

Best to all,

JRH



To: Tommaso who wrote (87080)7/2/2007 4:35:28 PM
From: ChanceIs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206214
 
>>> I know of no other way that I can buy directly into agricultural commodities,<<<

Lind Waldock give ag futures quotes. I assume you can trade through them. There are the relatively new emini contracts out. I don't do futures but I hope this has helped.

lind-waldock.com



To: Tommaso who wrote (87080)7/4/2007 11:28:28 PM
From: lzc  Respond to of 206214
 
>> . . . I know of no other way [than DBA] that I can buy directly into agricultural commodities . . .

This may not be practical for many, but there is another way if your broker trades on the London Stock Exchange. They offer ETFs that track ag and metal commodities individually as well as in several combinations, all priced in US$.

etfsecurities.com