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Politics : The Next President 2008 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: calgal who wrote (1007)7/7/2007 11:26:00 PM
From: calgal  Respond to of 3215
 
Time to check candidates' expiration dates

By Jonah Goldberg

jewishworldreview.com







jewishworldreview.com | Politics is about moments. Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are all the proof you need. McCain has been trying to re-create the magic of 2000, despite the fact that he lost that year. When he tells audiences to get ready for "straight talk," he sounds like a rerun of a canceled TV show

In politics, there's no such thing as a second first date.

Meanwhile, Obama is having a fantastic first date with the American electorate, as evidenced by fundraising numbers that are as spectacular as McCain's are abysmal.

People usually don't want to date someone they've known for a long time. It's common to be romantically interested in the new guy or gal in the office; it's more rare to suddenly think Bob from accounting is a dreamboat after working with him for 20 years.

This is one of the great tensions between the dynamics of the primaries and the general elections. Winning the nomination usually requires building up a network of support among the rank and file. People who've been around a long time are usually best equipped to do this. But people who've been around a long time are usually the least appealing candidates when it comes time to run in the general elections.

In 2003, The National Journal's Jonathan Rauch floated what he called "the Law of 14." "With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt," Rauch wrote, "no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president."

Lyndon Johnson was the one exception, taking 23 years to go from his first election to the House to the vice presidency in 1960. Of course, that squeaker of an election was an outlier in that all sorts of longstanding trends were in peril. For example, had Nixon beat Kennedy, he would have been the first sitting V.P. elected straight to the presidency since Martin Van Buren.

Indeed, vice presidents and legislators (particularly senators) have similar problems in that they don't seem like men of action. Veeps are usually yes-men while senators are "yes, but" men. They talk and talk, defining their leadership in terms of co-sponsoring this and seeking cloture on that. Worse, most senators who run for president do so after hanging around for a long time. Not only does this mean their shelf life tends to expire, but they only become more senatorial.

Here's a tip: You will never hear the words "President Christopher Dodd."

Historically, the most successful candidates have been governors and generals. In 2004, American Enterprise Institute president Christopher DeMuth crunched the numbers and found that 55 percent of our elected presidents were either governors or generals, while "only three of our 31 elected presidents have come from a primarily legislative background, and none was re-elected."

So you have a nomination process that's biased in favor of people who've spent their careers collecting chits from the power brokers, and a general-election environment that generally wants a fresh face. In 1996, everyone thought former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander was the GOP's best hope for beating Bill Clinton. Instead, the GOP decided it was Bob Dole's turn. That turned out swell.

What does all this mean for today? Well, obviously, it's bad news for McCain. But Mitt Romney, a former governor whose face is so fresh-looking it's like he preserves it in Mylar, looks to be in pretty good shape. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are both running out the clock of their respective shelf lives, but one could say they're fresher to the American public than that suggests. Rudy was born again on 9/11, and Thompson left the Senate before going stale and has been rejuvenated by the magic of Hollywood.

In other words, if you put the disastrous behavior of the GOP these last few years aside (a big if, of course), the Republican field looks pretty good. Bush may not be the albatross Democrats hope. None of these guys is running as the Bush heir apparent, and no Democrat has won the White House without facing an unpopular GOP incumbent in more than 40 years.

The more interesting question is what this means for the Democrats, specifically Hillary Clinton. If her tenure as first lady counts — and I think for many people, including Hillary, it does — then her shelf life is almost up, too. Indeed, I think the Clinton name may be more perishable than the expiration date suggests.

Meanwhile, the young, fresh-faced, un-senatorial Obama is clearly having his moment. The problem, as McCain can tell him, is that having your moment in the primaries is no guarantee of getting the nomination.



To: calgal who wrote (1007)7/7/2007 11:29:32 PM
From: calgal  Respond to of 3215
 
Hair-raising stuff from good ol' Bubba

By Wesley Pruden









jewishworldreview.com | Who would have thought that such a quaint and happy place like Arkansas, where nothing much happens to torment the razorbacks, disturb the boll weevils or curdle the barbecue sauce, could furnish the modern definition of "chutzpah."

"Chutzpah," a Yiddish word more often heard in Brooklyn or the Bronx and not easily recognized by the several varieties of Baptists in the land of deep, dark nights and the magic huckleberry, has heretofore been defined as "the attitude shown by the man who kills his parents and begs the court to shower mercy on a poor orphan."

Now comes Bill Clinton, who auctioned pardons in the last hours of his presidency, and his shrill surrogate to berate George W. Bush for reluctantly commuting the prison sentence of Scooter Libby. The president stopped short of granting a pardon. Scooter had nothing to offer a president but a plea for mercy. (He paid the $250,000 fine yesterday.) But the Clintons' record for never having shown shame for their perversions and peccadillos remains unique, intact and unchallenged.

Most men in his position would go miles out of their way to avoid talking about pardons, but good ol' Bubba, with his skill at mangling and manipulating the language and parsing phrases ("it depends on what the meaning of 'is' is"), was eager to talk about how he conducted his auction. "I think there are guidelines for what happens when somebody is convicted," the former president said. He should know. He was indicted once himself for high crimes and misdemeanors, and beat the rap only because several jurors were more eager to preserve the tattered dignity of the presidency than to mete justice. Scooter, having fallen into a trap baited by the special prosecutor and an obliging judge, had no confederates on his jury.

Bubba offered a hair-raising account of George W.'s sin. "You've got to understand, [the Libby commutation] is consistent with [the Bush] philosophy, they believe that they should be able to do what they want to do, that the law is a minor obstacle." Scooter was saved from prison, he said, only to protect Dick Cheney. "What we know is that Libby was carrying out the implicit or explicit wishes of the vice president, or maybe the president as well, in the further effort to stifle dissent."

Even Al Gore, who canceled his scheduled blast of hot air at a save-the-planet rally at Wimbledon in the wake of the arrest of his son in a Los Angeles drug bust, chimed in with a ringing plea for tough justice (for Scooter): "It's different because in his case the person involved is charged with activities that involved knowledge of what his superiors in the White House did." Say what? Anyway, different. Just take Al's word for it.

The Marc Rich pardon actually is different. Mr. Rich is first of all a Democrat, and once indicted beat it out of the country just ahead of the sheriff and the posse. He decided to stay in Switzerland, trade in his old wife for a young blonde model, change the name of his company and start a new life. He assigned the discarded wife to lean on Bubba for another "do-over" for the indicted swindler. Denise Rich, the old wife, had raised $1 million for the party and had contributed $10,000 to the Clinton legal defense fund, and even gave Hillary $7,300 worth of tables, chairs, pots, pans and maybe even a mop for the new house. Bubba was raising money for his library in Little Rock and needed friends like Denise and Marc. What was one more pardon for generous friends in the final hours of a day when you were dispensing 140 pardons. Aren't friends nice?

The White House had a little fun with the Clintons yesterday. "I don't know what 'Arkansan' is for 'chutzpah,' but this is a gigantic case of it," Tony Snow, the president's press agent, said. When someone reminded him that Rep. John Conyers of Michigan, chairman of one of the House committees assigned to harass people, had scheduled hearings on the Libby commutation, he replied: "Well, fine, knock himself out. I mean, perfectly happy. And while he's at it, why doesn't he look at Jan. 20, 2001." He could ask Denise Rich. That's the day she took her checkbook to auction.

jewishworldreview.com