Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (80930)	7/10/2007 4:37:08 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>Warning: I will probably start posting there and asking lots of dumb questions, as I did when I arrived here.<<< What is wrong with asking a lot of dumb questions???? I came to the Boom Boom Room in '98 (well - Strictly Drilling) not knowing squat and learned an enormous amount from kind posters willing to help me. I hope that I have returned the favor many times. These boards are great. Want a bank short??? Try DSL. Large (most) of earnings are virtual - from deferred interest - which gets reported as non-cash additions to loan balances. They are a big option ARM player, and concentrated in California. They have a large short interest already. They really haven't fallen much, although what anyone sees in them I can't fathom. A true "levitating lender." What more could you want???

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (80930)	7/10/2007 6:42:25 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

My take on playing the "financials" BTW, today was absolutely scrumptious. Here are my thoughts: 1. Don't short XLF, buy the ultrashort SKF which is 2x negative of XLF. 2. I'm looking at the investment banks. They led the markets up to the current level, and IMO will lead it down. Take your pick - JPM, MER, LEH, BSC, or GS. They all have significant exposure to subprime, directly or indirectly. Who knows what will happen to all the CDO's? During the "flight to quality" which will gradually take down the junk bond market, the big name financials will be in the spotlight. Also, the M&A activity will come to a standstill as liquidity dries up - and the major investment banks will suffer. 3. If you're looking at trading options, I've been happy with GS. The puts are "expensive" with regard to the IV and time premium, probably not for buy and holding. But for ITM options, a $5 move on a 220 dollar stock is more likely to occur in a short period of time than it is for a 70 dollar stock. Well, that's my 2 cents, FWIW. I'm interested in everyone's else's ideas.