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Biotech / Medical : Cardiome -- CRME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (170)	7/11/2007 7:45:08 AM
From: kenhott	Respond to of 285

Thanks. I will take a look. I have not been in the stock for awhile. I know the events that are upcoming and intent to get my brain back into gear before they hit.

To: tuck who wrote (170)	7/12/2007 11:38:56 AM
From: kenhott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 285

I see from your link more compounds looking for a place in AFib. I noted one error, AVE0118 also hits Ito besides Ikur. The oral prevention market is pretty complicated. The IV conversion market is relatively simple. One way to look at the stock is IV only and equivalent supportable market cap. In oral, CRME will need to run phase 3s vs. a comparator drug(s). Just showing a x% improvement over placebo is not going to do the trick because I don't foresee them able to show a real world relevant delta. CRME will need to decide if they go after rate control or go after a class I or III drug. Each has its own bag of nuts and bolts. For now, lets assume that Oral RSD1235 is safe which is a big assumption. If they can "beat" rate control they will likely have the entire market and the stock will go up abunchofX (Because rate control is preferred over rhythm control). But the only way to do that is to run a death/hospital/etc. long ranging trial which I don't think CRME will wish to do. Ultimately I don't think they can beat rate control, especially in a controlled trial. So if they go after a class I drug, they are targeting the healthier AFib types. Or if they go after Amio, they are targeting the sicker AFib types. Given the way the market is sliced up, they should go after Amio. Thru such a set of phase 3s, they can attempt to take the entire rhythm control market. The key going forward is likely safety at this point. I think CRME should run a non-inferior trial vs. Amio with the focus on safety. A SPA would be a very very good idea. I suggest this because I am not at all sure RSD1235 can be expected to beat Amio in time to AF recurrence, for instance. Sanofi is being forced to run ATHENA which is one of those death/hospital/etc trials. But it is vs. placebo. They were forced this direction because of the problem they had with the Andromeda trial. I am not sure they will come out ahead in this trial. If they bomb ATHENA, Doronedarone is likely dead. For this criminally insightful analysis, I am going to charge 11 zillion microminifractionalpesos.... or 4 pieces of toilet paper, the equivalent value.