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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MythMan who wrote (376)7/15/2007 8:42:08 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71446
 
I don't think a peaceful decline is possible now after years
of pumping and 500 Billion of leveraged hedge fund money
doing LTCM and counting on it, it's either further up or a
rapid BK. We've seen on Feb. 27 how rapid it can be. But,
of course, that stuff was quickly corrected with an injection
of liquidity and lowering margin requirements for Market Makers
on CME. So, I think, either we have DOW-17000 by the end of
the year, or we have an epic BK somewhere in between -g-



To: MythMan who wrote (376)7/15/2007 9:36:52 PM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 71446
 
Furthermore, if liquidity is NOT injected on time, there is
some risk of BK now, since it tends to be a rapid thing. -g-
Given where the dollar is, I did expect the Fed to be a bit
concerned doing more coupon passes now. They will do so at the last
moment. Yes, I agree, the only thing that can stop this
process is a dollar crisis, with foreigners actually dumping
USD instead of buying and storing them, and that's why the
Fed is concerned. Everyone can see "80" and abyss written
on the dollar. Given the leverage, BK could arrive out
of nowhere, with the Fed unable to stop it. There is this
risk, and they need to print on time -g- With the market at
new highs, they just might not print again this week, and
such things could prove to be fatal quickly -g-



To: MythMan who wrote (376)7/16/2007 1:09:49 AM
From: stan_hughes  Respond to of 71446
 
Mainly CDN$, Canroys and Canadian junior golds/zincs since early 2003 -- and staying there for the foreseeable future, too, although that party will also end one day



To: MythMan who wrote (376)7/16/2007 9:17:02 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71446
 
I think of puts as insurance. You pay the premium, which now
is very cheap, and if the Fed fails to inject liquidity,
puts might prove to be a useful hedge. If they are paid by
the counterparty, of course -g-