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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (15091)	7/17/2007 3:48:58 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

The failed model...Example 1... The US The little blister on the downslope in the late 70's is the largest field ever discovered in NA. Place called Prudhoe.

To: mistermj who wrote (15091)	7/17/2007 8:55:41 PM
From: Triffin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36917

HUBBERT claimed: 170 billion barrels ultimate resource in the U.S. The latest USGS estimate is 330 billion barrels as the ultimate resource in the U.S. Geologic constraints indeed...it's the constraints of a failed model. Not at all .. One merely plugs whatever "guess" you want for URR .. You still have a similar looking production curve .. The "area" under the curve will vary per your URR input value .. We're splitting hairs here .. 1) The world consumes more oil per day than the planet can/does produce .. 2) We're consuming more oil per year than we've been finding per year for at least the past 15 years .. 3) Global production of crude oil will 'peak' and then decline at approx. 50% of URR .. 4) If we wait too long to initiate mitigation techniques to offset the depletion of conventional crude we risk serious economic dislocations .. 5) As with any other natural resource, we always exploit the cheap easy to get amounts first .. 6) Proposed "alternatives" are more expensive and don't scale to the extent of current crude production .. Triff ..