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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (83813)	7/18/2007 11:58:27 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I know the farmers were hurting and agricultural prices were dropping, so that may have affected farmland values in the mid-1920s. Yes: "In 1920 the value of farm land and buildings was $66 billion; by 1928 it had fallen to $47 billion. In 1920 the realized net income of farm operators was $6.9; by 1928 it had fallen to $5.7 billion--all this, remember, at a time when the American economy was supposed to have reached 'the permanent plateau of prosperity.'" I found that right away in "American Economic History," (1961) pp. 386-7, a book I got for free when an academic economist abandoned his library and went to Washington about 40 years ago.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (83813)	7/18/2007 12:04:14 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Some further thoughts: If, as Jim Rogers thinks, agricultural prices continue their rapid rise, so will farmland continue its rapid appreciation (in 2007). That, in turn, may presage seriously inflationary times, the opposite of the 1920s. It will take a while before buyers of long bonds start to realize what a horrible mistake they have made. And higher interest rates will cut equities by 50% or more. It was clear to me a year ago that farmland in the Midwest was a great investment, but it was not convenient for me to try to get into it.