Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bart13 who wrote (83821)	7/18/2007 2:09:32 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

M3 and bank credit dropped at least 30x more than even the $1.1 billion so it's inconsequential in my opinion. they couldn't get people to take loans back then, but my grandpa and grandma had all the pigs they wanted or needed at the time - so my grandpa was not going to take any loans - but today I see so many oprah wannabes that will take a loan out to get her nails done and buy her puppy a diamond collar - my grandpa and grandma would never do this - so the ENVIRONMENT is different today - you have people possibly much more willing to take on debt and are CLUELUESS about the inflation making them poorer - my grandpa knew when his scottish whiskey went up in price things were not good - hehe. I have enough capital to buy a McDonald's franchise but don't own one of those either. But everyone needs somewhere to live where they can grow thier own food and have milk from their own cows and goats no? You and Russ do not fit into the new hedonic models if you are not able to do this. Bart after the blowup in 29 - what percentage of traders had to leave the business? How many traders were there before the bust - and then after the bust? I would like to see a chart of trader employment levels from 1900 til today if you can dig up the info. No clue and no interest in research. Perhaps some other thread posters can pull up the statistics - if everything goes boom I just can't see wild swings happening anymore and phil says when the vix is low - you go - and if the vix stays low for 20 years and there is no volatility - traders are not going to do as well over the next few decades in aggregate eh?

To: bart13 who wrote (83821)	7/18/2007 6:21:14 PM
From: John Metcalf	Respond to of 110194

"“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” -- Benjamin Graham shades wrote: Bart after the blowup in 29 - what percentage of traders had to leave the business? How many traders were there before the bust - and then after the bust? I would like to see a chart of trader employment levels from 1900 til today if you can dig up the info." Lots of traders went belly up, or face down, some due to the act of defenestration. But Ben Graham, entered Wall St. in 1914, survived the crash, wrote Security Analysis with David Dodds in 1934, and was still a successful investor when he died in 1976. To me, the quote above (thanks, Bart) explains why he succeeded in good times and bad for 60 years. Today, where can one get safety of principal and adequate return? Consensus on this board seems to be that the best positions are denominated in something other than USD, like land, oil, water, foreign sovereign debt, foreign equities. In USD, either the return is inadequate because it comes, if at all, in inflated dollars, or safety is inadequate because you get paid in dollars that are worth less than today, or worthless altogether. If Graham were still here, he might be trying to preserve buying power until the day that assets become cheap, return more than the cost of investing in them, and inflation prospects are either lower or covered by the return on assets. Additionally, he would be looking for a margin of safety in each of these measures.