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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (8047)7/20/2007 9:17:37 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Respond to of 33421
 
"Short-selling activity rose to a fifth consecutive monthly record at the New York Stock Exchange as interest-rate jitters roiled the market, then gave way to optimism about earnings and the economy.

For the monthly period ending July 13, the number of short-selling positions not yet closed out at the NYSE -- so-called short interest -- rose 3.9% to 12,950,726,148 shares from 12,467,283,409 shares in mid-June.

Marketwide, the short ratio, or number of days' average volume represented by the short positions outstanding at the exchange, rose to 8.4 from 8.0."

Some interesting commentary on this at the link:

bigpicture.typepad.com

Hawk



To: John Pitera who wrote (8047)7/20/2007 12:19:47 PM
From: nspolar  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
Was looking for 2070 plus/minus on the NDX.

Had yesterday as a possible top.

No position, but I am not afraid to try a short again here. Hawk is convincing me.



To: John Pitera who wrote (8047)7/20/2007 3:47:22 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Australian Fund Catches U.S.'s Subprime Flu
By JACKIE RANGE and PAUL BECKETT
July 20, 2007; Page C1

For a sign of how far Wall Street's subprime problems have spread, you can't get much further than Sydney, where one of Australia's largest and most prominent hedge funds is in crisis after its investments related to U.S. mortgages went sour.

Basis Capital Funds Management Ltd., which had nearly $950 million in assets under management as of May, was founded in 1999 by two veterans of Asian finance. Basis is one of the leaders of the hedge-fund boom sweeping Australia, which has become the biggest center for such funds in Asia.

Two Basis funds invested in instruments related to U.S. subprime mortgages posted steep losses last month, prompting Basis to restrict investor withdrawals. The firm has appointed accounting firm Grant Thornton LLP to help it restructure as creditors press for repayment of loans. Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. earlier this week moved to sell some Basis assets, including subprime-related bonds used as collateral for loans, according to people familiar with the matter.

Basis executives didn't return calls and emails seeking comment. Citigroup and J.P. Morgan declined to comment.

Basis's problems are the latest fallout from the downturn in financial instruments linked to mortgage loans to U.S. borrowers with spotty credit histories. The declines have hammered U.S. financial institutions, including Bear Stearns Cos. and have hurt at least two London hedge funds.

As the news of the near-collapse of two Bear hedge funds spread, institutional investors, funds of funds and other hedge-fund investors demanded to know their managers' levels of subprime exposure and some sought to get their money back. When Basis investors sought to withdraw their funds, the firm was unable to quickly sell enough assets, some of which were illiquid or trading at big discounts, to cover those redemption demands, said one New York fund-of-funds manager who is familiar with Basis but says his clients aren't invested in it.

Basis is the first hedge fund in Asia to publicly show significant fallout -- a distinction that has dented the reputations of its founders, Steven Howell and Stuart Fowler. Both have more than 20 years experience in Asian finance. In the past, Mr. Howell worked at NatWest Capital Markets (now part of RBS Group PLC of the United Kingdom) and American Express Co. in Singapore. Mr. Fowler worked at NatWest Markets and Citigroup's Salomon Smith Barney unit in Hong Kong, according to the Basis Web site. The two are respected in the world of Australian hedge funds centered in Sydney, the financial capital.

A December 2006 Standard & Poor's Corp. survey ranked them among Australia's highest-rated fund managers, saying Basis had an "excellent track record without incurring unnecessary amounts of risk."

"We think the situation that potentially they find themselves in isn't a full reflection of the quality of management capacity, more a reflection of the markets in which they deal," said Anthony Serhan, head of research at Morningstar Research Pty Ltd. in Sydney.

In the past few years, the ranks of Australian hedge funds and assets under management have rocketed. As of July 2006, hedge-fund managers in Australia directly controlled $30.5 billion. That isn't much by the standards of the U.S. and U.K. hedge-fund industries. But it put Australia ahead of Japan with $22.3 billion and Hong Kong with $19.6 billion, according to AsiaHedge, a hedge-fund industry publication.

When money in "funds of hedge funds" -- which invest across a range of hedge funds -- is added, assets under management in Australia stood at $46.6 billion as of July last year. That is triple the level of two years earlier, according to Invest Australia, a government agency.

Australia allows retail investors to invest in the funds, which in many other places are restricted to wealthy individuals or institutional investors. The Australian government also encourages a very high savings rate. A 1992 law requires workers to set aside big chunks of their income for retirement. That pool of money totals about $982 billion, according to Invest Australia. Because Australia's economy -- despite a long period of prosperity -- remains relatively small, much of that money is invested elsewhere.

Analysts say they don't expect the damage done to Basis to spread widely in Australia's hedge-fund community because others didn't have as much exposure to the U.S. subprime market. Nor have there yet been signs of a widespread impact across Asia, though analysts expect some banks to suffer losses.

For the past several years, Basis posted solid returns for its investors by focusing on fixed-income investments. The firm runs four funds in total: two for Australian domestic investors and two for international investors. The investments of the Australian and the international funds overlap significantly.

The Basis Aust-Rim Opportunity Fund, a fund for Australian investors founded in September 2000, returned an average of 11.37% a year to investors between its inception and May 31, according to Morningstar. The Basis Yield Fund, the other Australian fund, returned 14.5% a year from its inception in January 2004 to May 31, according to Morningstar.

But last week, Basis told investors that its Basis Yield Alpha Fund, one of the international funds denominated in U.S. dollars, had lost around 14% in June. The fund had $459 million in assets under management as of May, according to the company. The other international fund, called Basis Pac-Rim Opportunity Fund and also denominated in dollars, was down 9.2% in June. That fund, domiciled in the Cayman Islands, had $570 million under management as of May.

Basis may yet stanch its losses and the performance of the funds could recover. In a July 11 letter to investors, the firm said: "Basis' Funds contain a number of important structural features designed at inception to ensure their survival through periods of extreme dislocation such as this."

Basis, known as a specialist in fixed-income arbitrage -- a hedge-fund strategy of exploiting pricing inefficiencies among government and debt, convertible bonds, asset-backed securities and other debt instruments -- sought investment from U.S. and U.K. institutions and fund-of funds investors, according to two fund-of-fund managers.

About 60% of Basis Capital's investors were from overseas and about 40% were domestic investors, including Australian pension funds, according to a Sydney marketer of Australian hedge funds who is familiar with Basis and its investors.



To: John Pitera who wrote (8047)8/6/2007 3:20:05 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
LOSING HAND How Bear Stearns Mess Cost Executive His Job
CEO Faults Spector For Mortgage Fiasco;
Bonding Over Bridge

By KATE KELLY and SUSANNE CRAIG
August 6, 2007; Page A1

On Wednesday James Cayne, the 73-year-old chief executive of Bear Stearns Cos., summoned his top lieutenant to his smoky, dimly lit office in midtown Manhattan.

The big securities firm Mr. Cayne had led as CEO for 14 years was under attack. Two of its mortgage-related hedge funds had blown up, costing investors more than $1 billion, and its stock was under siege, down 27% this year alone. The way Mr. Cayne saw it, Warren Spector, Bear Stearns's co-president and the person most often cited as his likely successor, deserved some of the blame.


He told Mr. Spector he had lost confidence in him. "I think it's in the best interests of the firm for you to resign," Mr. Cayne told Mr. Spector, people familiar with the conversation say.

Mr. Spector was taken aback, and responded that he'd been working hard to address the firm's problems, according to one of these people.

That conversation ended the close partnership between the two Wall Street veterans, a connection forged years earlier by a common love of bridge, but one that had become strained. Mr. Spector, a 49-year-old former mortgage-securities trader, has become Wall Street's highest-profile casualty in the burgeoning subprime lending fiasco. What had started as a narrow problem in a small corner of the U.S. housing market -- lending to risky borrowers -- has become a big problem for Wall Street.

The trouble at Bear Stearns has spooked investors. Bear Stearns has long been known as one of the most astute risk managers on Wall Street. Its problems come despite repeated assurances from Wall Street bankers that they have a handle on the booming market for mortgage securities. Bear Stearns, which has a huge mortgage business but a less diverse mix of other business than its investment-banking peers, has been the hardest hit. Its stock has fallen 28% since the beginning of June, and 6% on Friday alone. A Friday afternoon conference call intended to quell investors' fears about Bear Stearns's profitability attracted 2,200 listeners.

Mr. Spector's ouster may not allay those concerns. It leaves the company without a clear succession plan and without the services of a mortgage and trading expert. While Mr. Cayne is deeply involved in running Bear Stearns, he had left much of its day-to-day operation to a pair of lieutenants -- investment banker and co-president Alan Schwartz and, until last week, Mr. Spector. Mr. Cayne had been comfortable enough with their stewardship that he didn't come into the office most Fridays in the summer, preferring to stay at his home in New Jersey.

Bear Stearns's 13-member board met yesterday afternoon to formalize Mr. Spector's departure. For now, the firm will have a single president: Mr. Schwartz, a seasoned rainmaker who has advised on big mergers but doesn't have the trading experience of Messrs. Spector or Cayne. Jeffrey Mayer, co-head of global fixed income at Bear Stearns, will replace Mr. Spector on the executive committee. "There is a depth of talent in our senior management team," Mr. Cayne said yesterday in a prepared statement.

Bear Stearns has told investors that it's "solidly profitable" and that it made money during the market gyrations of both June and July. The firm said that in recent months it has moved to secure more stable financing by replacing some of its commercial-paper holdings with longer-term loans.

"They have weathered a lot of storms before, but this is a...tough hole to dig out of," said Glenn Schorr, an analyst at UBS AG. "They have funding to carry them for a while."


Nevertheless, Wall Street has been buzzing with speculation that the firm will need to seek a strategic investor. In 1987, investor Warren Buffett bought a large stake in Salomon Brothers Inc. as it struggled to fend off unwanted offers, and he later served as interim chairman to restore confidence during a crisis. Last year, Bear Stearns held talks with China Construction Bank Corp. about taking a minority stake, which would have given Bear Stearns a larger capital base and a foothold in China. But the talks fizzled after the then president of CCB, Chang Zhenming, left the bank.

Bear Stearns's Los Angeles-based vice chairman, Donald Tang, has continued to pursue the idea with other entities such as China Citic Group, according to people familiar with the matter. A person close to Bear says the firm is only interested in a joint-venture partner. But following the Chinese government's $3 billion investment in private-equity firm Blackstone Group, other Wall Street firms have been seeking similar ties, which gives Chinese entities more attractive alternatives than Bear Stearns.

Bear Stearns's troubles started in the housing market, where it had developed a lucrative business originating mortgages and packaging them into securities that were sold to investors and traded. In 2006, home prices were beginning to taper but "subprime" borrowers with sketchy credit continued to get mortgages. By the second half of that year, however, late payments and defaults were rising, shaking the subprime market, and the picture worsened after the new year. Home prices also were starting to slip, raising fears of a housing bust. At Monday meetings of Bear Stearns's executive committee, the housing market became a frequent point of discussion.

The committee didn't foresee trouble at two internal hedge funds run by Ralph Cioffi, a former mortgage-bond salesman who had been with Bear Stearns since 1987 and was a close colleague of Mr. Spector's. In 2003, Mr. Cioffi had approached his superiors about using the firm's own capital to buy and sell securities in a portion of the fixed-income market that included collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. Some CDOs are based on pools of mortgage loans. He was successful enough that, at the end of that year, Bear Stearns's hedge-fund committee allowed him to open his own fund as part of the firm's asset-management unit.

His fund, called the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies fund, raised about $925 million from investors and invested in CDOs. For several years, it notched positive monthly returns. Last year, he launched a second fund with roughly $640 million in investor capital. He loaded it with debt to magnify returns.

This spring, as the housing market weakened further and subprime defaults mounted, results began to slip. Bear Stearns officials didn't worry much at first. Mr. Cioffi's investments were considered by rating agencies to be high-grade investment vehicles, and their valuations had remained largely intact.

But in May, brokerage firms that had sold CDOs to Mr. Cioffi began slashing the prices, or "marks," they had previously put on those securities, leaving the two hedge funds with double-digit paper losses. In early June, some investors in the more leveraged fund asked for their money back. Because their requests added up to about $300 million -- more cash than Mr. Cioffi had on hand -- redemptions were frozen.

Bear Stearns's stock began dropping in value, and the executive committee started meeting nearly every day to discuss what to do. To the committee, it looked as though the enhanced-leverage fund had little chance of surviving, but that the first fund might be salvaged. By mid-June, the enhanced-leverage fund had missed margin calls -- requests for additional cash and collateral -- from lenders including Merrill Lynch & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The lenders wanted to be made whole.

Some Wall Street executives were pressuring Bear Stearns to stop the bleeding. Initially, the firm's executive committee balked. Bear Stearns executives felt they shouldn't feel obligated to lend money to a fund whose operations were separate from Bear Stearns's, and whose investors were knowledgeable about the risks. On the afternoon of June 14, J.P. Morgan's investment banking co-chief, Steven Black, and his top risk officer had a tense phone call with Mr. Spector, in which the lender urged Bear Stearns to give the fund some emergency credit, participants in the call say.

Calling the J.P. Morgan executives "naïve," Mr. Spector said Bear Stearns was the resident expert in the mortgage business, recalls one participant, and that the lenders should back off.

Early that evening, J.P. Morgan sent an in-house lawyer to Bear Stearns's headquarters with an official default notice. But a Bear Stearns receptionist told the lawyer that the firm was closed for business, and that the documents couldn't be accepted, people familiar with the matter say.

The blow to Bear Stearns's reputation, however, caused the firm to reverse course. Late the following week, after hearing a presentation from Bear Stearns's in-house mortgage team suggesting that the older fund might still contain value, the firm's executive committee authorized a secured loan to the less-leveraged fund of up to $3.2 billion. The fund ended up borrowing $1.6 billion, which it didn't repay entirely, leaving Bear Stearns's loan officers to seize the collateral remaining in Mr. Cioffi's fund. Bear Stearns could lose much of the $1.3 billion the fund still owes it, public filings indicate.

Because the asset-management division reported to him, Mr. Spector was under fire as well. He replaced the chief of that division with Jeffrey Lane, a money-management veteran who had once run Neuberger Berman LLC. Working long days and nights and seeing little of his wife, Mr. Spector told friends he was chagrined about the crisis and that he understood that the stakes were high.

Nevertheless, Mr. Spector had agreed months earlier to play with partners in a national bridge tournament in Nashville, Tenn. So he flew there in mid-July to compete. With Bear Stearns's shares reeling and concerns about the firm's management mounting, he spent about a week at the tournament, rising early to work the phones in his hotel room and jumping into the game in midafternoon. Along with his partners, Mr. Spector won the tournament. Still Mr. Cayne, who also played in the Nashville competition, was steamed that his lieutenant had been away from the office, according to people familiar with his thinking.

Years earlier, it was Mr. Spector's bridge-playing skills that had helped bring him to the attention of Mr. Cayne, a former scrap-iron salesman who had made his name as a stockbroker.

Mr. Spector, who grew up outside Washington, had won the title "king of bridge" in a national youth contest. After graduating from Bethesda-Chevy Chase High School in 1976, he attended Princeton, then switched to St. John's College, a small school in Annapolis, Md.

During his junior year, Mr. Spector wrote to Alan "Ace" Greenberg, then managing partner of Bear Stearns, to ask for a summer job. He got an offer, but turned it down because he couldn't afford to live in New York on $125 a week. Several years later, after graduating from business school, he contacted Mr. Greenberg again. This time he accepted a job offer.

He started on the firm's government-bond desk, where he helped establish the metrics and systems Bear Stearns uses today to research and trade mortgage-backed securities.

By 1987, two years after Bear Stearns went public, Mr. Spector was one of the best-paid people at the firm. Around that time, Mr. Cayne, who had not yet become CEO, was reviewing some compensation figures, and Mr. Spector's name rang a bell. He picked up the phone and dialed Mr. Spector. "Are you the Warren Spector that was the king of bridge?" he asked. Mr. Spector said he was, and Mr. Cayne invited him for a chat.

In 1990, Mr. Spector became a Bear Stearns director, and a few years later, he was named one of two people to run fixed income. In 1995, Mr. Spector's partner in overseeing the group, John C. Sites Jr., left amid speculation that Mr. Spector had pushed him out. Mr. Sites did not return calls for comment.

Mr. Spector, who wears black-rimmed glasses and maintains a trim physique, kept a relatively low profile on Wall Street. He and his wife, Margaret Whitton, a former actress who had a supporting role in the movie "Nine ½ Weeks" and played the vixenish wife of a CEO in the 1980s Wall Street parody "The Secret of My Success," have raised money for various charities, including for a hospital on Martha's Vineyard, where they own a beachfront home.

In recent years, Mr. Spector and Mr. Cayne butted heads over several issues. They didn't see eye to eye on Mr. Spector's wish to trade derivatives -- securities whose values are tied to stocks and other products -- on behalf of Bear Stearns customers. They disagreed about whether Bear Stearns should have a gym in its Madison Avenue building. (Mr. Cayne eventually agreed to add one.)

In 2004, Mr. Cayne publicly rebuked Mr. Spector for speaking on behalf of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, to whom Mr. Spector had donated money. (Mr. Cayne discourages Bear Stearns employees from making public statements about politics.) "If any of you were upset or offended by these press reports, please accept both his and my apologies," Mr. Cayne wrote in a memo to employees that chided his deputy.

Around that time, there was also tension over Mr. Spector's pay, due to his practice of deferring his annual compensation for a period of years, people familiar with the matter say. The firm allowed such deferrals, but Mr. Spector's total deferrals were becoming expensive for the firm, Mr. Cayne and some other executives felt. Last year, Mr. Cayne made $33.85 million and Mr. Spector took home $32.1 million, according to regulatory filings.