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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 6:23:06 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217544

TJ/C2 no way to go 'harvest' the USD out there and re-concentrate it in Europe and Japan as happened in the late 80's and 97 or once decade. I keep saying: this time will stay spread because it is not cyclical. It is structural. After I told to put money in Curitiba the Brazilian Real has climbed 90% against the USD. Then there's the capital gains: property doubled in price between 1998 and 2006.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 6:38:22 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217544

Biblical run on the USD. 1) The anglo countries: UK, Australia, NZ and Canada will be flooded with money and will inflate. 2) US increase interest rates to attract capital back like any other country. 3) It will help Brazil that has room to further decrease interest rates, kick starting internal market which is already heating up. Government taxes' revenue is already flooding its coffers, will have room to cut taxes and the thing turns into a snow ball. Elmat will seat down and would laugh.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 8:41:24 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217544

Excellent post Tobago! We are now in the very early stages of a huge move up in gold. Gold still is VERY cheap versus financial assets, real estate, and other commodities. Unless global CBs start to aggressively tighten monetary policy (almost no chance of this IMHO) people will be astounded at how high the yellow goes once it breaks through the 1980 high around $850.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 9:08:10 AM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217544

re: you must reconsider ---------- morning j -- you have a truly kind, benevolent disposition. ... for me -- I've lost all patience and consideration... ... if they are not part of the solution, I say they are the problem, and are due the consequences they've so diligently earned. ... for me -- I say let let them stew and decay in their easily digestible delusions. Screw 'em.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 10:16:06 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217544

We have been in a bull market powered by fiat currencies printing and leveraged on debt. Agree to some extent, but growth in some places, e.g., China and India, is IMO real and organic. Growth in the US is slowing and I think a very large part of it has been driven by easy cash dropping from helicopters. Financial wizardy not based on healthy underlying economic activity has propped up US markets for some time to some extent, though you must not forget the ever-increasing role foreign operations have in American corporations' profits. For all the hoopla about Chinese manufacturing, the profits from the sales of Chinese manufactured goods go mostly to the designers, brand owners and retailers, i.e. American and European companies. Should my worst fears and best hopes come true, energy will fall, because energy is a bull market play. Disagree, energy and commodities are macroeconomically and growth driven. If the US or any significant economies start slowing growth or end up in recession, energy and commodity prices will fall for lack of healthy demand. In the case of Black Gold, there is another consideration: supply. Everything I see and read suggests capacity constraints everywhere. Peak oil is either here or approaching. If so, energy will continue to be a very healthy sector. Geopolitics is another significant factor. If the wacky headhacking MadMullahs, Wahabbis, and tinhorn dictators of the world like Hugo Chavez have their way, oil might be in shorter supply than we ever imagine. The Cuddly Canadians are of course excepted and they have the most oil of all in their Alberta and Saskatchewan sands. Even the Chinese are kowtowing to our Canadian cousins, thus far not very successfully. Because there is geopolitical risk and constrained supply, I see Black Gold at worst staying level. If the helicopters continue to dump cash and some semblance of growth takes place, energy will continue to do very well. My thesis has worked well so far with XOM, MRO and VLO. I took a healthy dip on Friday the Thirteenth into what I thought was an undervalued Canadian sands play, BQI, and was pleasantly surprised with a 23% return in a week. But, yes, there is a rumbling in The Force. The US markets horrible day Friday presages something not good. The Dark Side is getting closer and stronger. Perhaps a good time to take profits, monetize.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (20319)	7/21/2007 10:46:13 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217544

foreign investors put $68.6 billion in American corporate bonds in May and $42.5 billion in American stocks. Both figures were the largest ever for a month. ... Much of the money going into American stocks comes from the Caribbean, the domicile of many hedge funds, and even more comes from Britain, where money managers draw money from investors around the world. A Blockbuster Seller Overseas: Stakes in Corporate America nytimes.com