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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (35444)	7/21/2007 4:38:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95611

At this moment in time, the table below addresses some information on the earnings picture for the 17 stocks in the Group that report on a calendar quarter basis. The first table shows information on the June and Sept earnings data for the 17 stocks. The second table shows summary data for these 17 stocks going back to June of 04. - JUN JUN SEP - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR QTR - QTR EARN EARN PCT EARN DIFF SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF EST JUN/SEP ASML 2Q 0.39 0.44 13 0.43 0.04 ASYT 1Q 0.07 0.10 0.03 ATMI 2Q 0.25 0.32 0.07 BRKS 3Q 0.32 0.28 -0.04 COHU 2Q 0.05 0.17 0.12 CYMI 2Q 0.51 0.59 0.08 KLAC 4Q 0.85 0.79 -0.06 KLIC 3Q 0.07 0.27 0.20 LRCX 4Q 1.17 1.11 -0.06 MTSN 2Q 0.11 0.15 0.04 NVLS 2Q 0.43 0.44 2 0.39 -0.04 PHTN 3Q -0.38 -0.25 0.13 SMTL 3Q 0.00 0.01 0.01 TER 2Q 0.11 0.14 27 0.21 0.10 UTEK 2Q -0.04 0.05 0.09 VECO 2Q 0.09 0.22 0.13 WFR 2Q 0.76 0.82 0.06 MAR 06 TOTAL 4.76 1.02 -79 5.66 0.90 - 17 STKS QTR QTR PCT QTR SUM EST ACT DIFF SEP 07 TOTAL 5.66 ? ? JUN 07 TOTAL 4.76 ? ? MAR 07 TOTAL 4.11 3.98 -3 DEC 06 TOTAL 4.43 5.28 19 SEP 06 TOTAL 4.74 5.20 10 JUN 06 TOTAL 4.80 5.26 10 MAR 06 TOTAL 3.67 4.05 10 DEC 05 TOTAL 3.46 4.28 24 SEP 05 TOTAL 1.94 2.58 33 JUN 05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12 Some items of note: 1. So far, ASML, NVLS and TER have reported actuals, all 3 have exceeded the estimates. 2. The June quarter estimates sum up to 4.76. This is up considerably from the Mar estimate of 4.11(16%) and the Mar actual of 3.98(20%). 3. Actuals in Mar 07(3.98) took a "big hit" from the previous 3 quarters of over 5 dollars. Dec 06 actuals were 5.28. The Mar actual of 3.98 was therefore down 25 percent. Perhaps this Jun quarter can exceed 5 dollars once again? To reach 5 dollars, actuals would have to exceed the present estimate of 4.76 by 5 percent. 4. The Sept quarter estimate is presently at 5.66. This is up 19 percent from the present June estimate. 5. Four of the 17 stocks show quarterly reductions from the June quarter estimates. They are BRKS(-.04), KLAC(-.06), LRCX(-.06, and NVLS(-.04). 6. If KLIC is the "canary in the coal mine" for the semi-equips, it is looking pretty good. The Sep estimate is at 0.27, up from the 0.07 for the Jun quarter. Pointwise, its 0.20 difference is the largest for the 17 stocks.