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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (494)	7/21/2007 8:49:12 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71454

Changes in COT may cause some reaction, but they don't seem to determine the LT trend, other things do that. I don't see any difference with gold COT there. You may be right, I don't know, although I would think your prediction would materialize if the Fed actually did something instead of just yapping about fighting inflation, like raising rates. Ditto Yen, the weakness is related to them not raising rates in July. However, retail sales came very strong in Japan, and they should raise again soon. In particular, why is the pound so strong? Brits have second largest trade deficit after the US. The only thing I can think of is London being European financial center, packaging all the Euro derivatives. Well, rates surely matter too, higher than US, higher than Euro. I think of gold as a carry trade currency too, since gold lease rates are close to zero.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (494)	7/21/2007 9:34:42 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

economist.com The "Big Mac" index, from Economist

To: stan_hughes who wrote (494)	7/22/2007 8:10:45 AM
From: zamboz	Respond to of 71454

You are right to question the huge short position. But sometimes these inequities take a long time to play out. The SI Real Estate Index Crash board was started years before the RE top. Anyone buying into the RE Crash theory in the early years of the decade would have missed out on the biggest moves. I talked to a European friend who imports US goods into Europe. The weak dollar has been good to him. But European exporters are very nervous that the US will stop buying EU goods. And my friend said the falling dollar will be good for US businesses. That dynamic will eventually add strength to the dollar.