Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (84020)	7/22/2007 7:18:03 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Humans program the computers. True, my PHD friend wrote a program that defeats him in chess everytime he battles it. These are not "smart", they There are AI programs that do LEARN, but even so, the program my PHD friend wrote can execute moves faster and see much deeper patterns than he can - so although he CREATED the chess program - his CREATION is better suited to the task than the GOD/CREATOR of the program. Some say god created man, perhaps this same logic applies - hehe. Henry ford created the mass produced automobile - could he move 200lbs of corn from michigan to new york at the speed of one of his model t's on a paved road heading downhill with a tailwind? 2) A different type of programs, LTCM-like, which is based on an assumption that the market is a random walk. Many John Bogle diehard investors believe this. They say you cant predict where the money will go long term, so best just to be diversified and buy lots of stuff when it is cheap and sell lots of stuff when it is expensive and rebalance. Maybe it goes into tickle me elmo dolls - maybe it goes into gold zippo lighters with platinum caps. The proverbial picking up nickels in front of the steamroller. Haha I like that analogy - that is hilarious! I believe so. When? Who knows. Why? Cause you can't get something out of nothing. Once the other side of the trade becomes broke, the game is over, Phil says you follow the money - if the money supply is inflating to the high heavens and everyone buys pet rocks with thier new money - I guess I could follow it there. stuff collapses under its own weight. Ok so we inflate the money supply - the US dollar becomes nearly worthless - industry moves back to america because everything is so cheap and michael moore has to make a MIRROR movie about ROGER AND ME and the jobs coming back to america eh? Can you make money on "random walk"? You sure can, and tons of it, but I just think that trade is very crowded right now. Well I don't want to be run over by the steam roller - that wouldn't feel very good. If the money leaves every asset out there - gold, houses, comic books, pet rocks, and goes into hot dog buns - if I am going to follow the money I have to have lots of hot dog buns I guess.