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To: Real Man who wrote (339131)	7/26/2007 11:52:25 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

bears already taunting.. siliconinvestor.com

To: Real Man who wrote (339131)	7/26/2007 12:12:21 PM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Like I said the other day, IMO the put/call historical database is now contaminated due to the growth explosion in hedge funds and their black box hedging strategies -- ditto for a lot of traditional TA -- I mean, criminy, on most days program trading accounts for half of the daily volume or more. But it's in the very nature of trading that once enough people start using something as a predictive tool, they will create a situation where the tool doesn't work the way it did before -- therefore you can't (or shouldn't) continue indefinitely to interpret its signals the same way, or draw the same conclusions from it. Meaning that a lot of algorithms are by corollary now invalid, or at least suspect/flawed in their assumptions, meaning that many hedge funds are flying somewhat blind here and also without a net. That observation applies over and above the whole 'drying up of liquidity' issue. It seems to me that in the end it will come back down to what it always comes down to, i.e. not who are the smartest guys in the room or who has the best black box, but who has the most money -- 'might makes right' on Wall Street, just like it does in real wars -- and at some point we're going to see the mother of all black box battles on the tape, if in fact we're not seeing the beginning of that already