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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Broken_Clock who wrote (66963)7/27/2007 10:06:03 PM
From: Giordano Bruno  Respond to of 116555
 
What's Next

Credit woes may still weigh heavily on traders' minds next week, unless a flurry of earnings and economic news provide a distraction.

Many analysts say more delayed or canceled debt deals like those this week of Chrysler and Alliance Boots would drag stocks down further. "The bigger fear is…that [credit problems are] spreading," says Charles Rotblut, of Zacks Investment Research. "It's rational [to] have an aversion to that." Stephen Sachs, director of trading at Rydex Investments, says developments on Monday and Tuesday of next week will be critical: "If the news continues down this path…we'll be in trouble."

The jitters come in the thick of second-quarter earnings season. Many REITs report earnings next week, including Simon Property and General Growth Properties. So do Dow components Verizon, Procter & Gamble, and General Motors.

Analysts are relatively bullish about the overall quality of earnings, which have not been bad -- but they are divided on how much they matter to market sentiment. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, says earnings are "taking a backseat" to economic worries. "Despite the fact that two-thirds of reporting companies are beating their estimates, investors view that as ancient history."

But Georges Yared of Yared Investment Research thinks stocks will shake off their worries and rebound next week: "This market has been so resilient to bad news," he says, noting that the S&P 500 now trades at 16 times his forecast for 2007 earnings, which he says is "not expensive."

If any event on next week's calendar is big enough to cut through the miasma of credit-market worries, it's Friday's July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Wall Street consensus is that nonfarm payrolls will grow by 135,000 new jobs, according to Briefing.com. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.5%. Weaker-than-expected numbers could add to worries about the state of the economy -- though they might also encourage the growing market belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

But strong numbers might be necessary to reassure the market that the economy isn't stumbling. Mr. Ablin calls the employment figure "critical," saying job growth has driven consumer confidence in the face of weak housing and expensive oil. That could be especially important with oil poised to set a new record next week.

Earnings and Corporate Events

Auto makers report monthly U.S. sales figures on Wednesday. Analysts predict the pace of July auto sales could plummet to their lowest level for the month since 1998, when a United Auto Workers strike against rattled the industry.

GM reports earnings Tuesday and is expected to post a profit. GM has shown progress in its turnaround effort as it focuses on profitable growth in emerging markets and on relatively improving margins in the U.S., but the core health of North American operations and cashflow remain concerns. Weakness at GMAC Financial Services, which reports earnings Monday, could hinder results at GM.

The deal to wrap up Cerberus Capital Managements' acquisition of DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler Group could occur next Monday or Tuesday.

This will be the first quarter in which the NYSE and Euronext report earnings as a combined company, when NYSE Euronext reports on Thursday. NYSE officials could face questions about the progress of the Euronext integration and the future of its traditional trading floor.

Similarly, when Nymex Holdings reports its earnings on Tuesday, much of the focus will be on any hint of merger activity. Investors will also be interested in how Nymex is looking to reduce costs, particularly from the trading floor.

Analysts will be on guard for any possible statements regarding the takeover battle the Dutch bank is embroiled in, when ABN Amro reports Monday.

Walt Disney reports its fiscal third-quarter earnings Wednesday. Wall Street is looking for a robust performance by the company's theme parks, with a weak U.S. dollar encouraging visits from overseas patrons.

Time Warner also reports Wednesday, and Viacom reports Thursday.

When Verizon Communications reports on Tuesday, Wall Street will be eyeing the telecommunications company's progress in its FiOS fiber deployment. Analysts have grown increasingly comfortable with Verizon's heavy investment in its network, as it is paying off with steady video subscriber growth and lowering costs.

Advanced Medical Optics releases earnings and holds call on Thursday. Investors will get a sense of the damage wrought by the late May recall of company's Complete MoisturePlus contact lens solution, due to infection links. Event may also provide chance for update on Advanced Medical's pursuit of Bausch & Lomb.

Procter & Gamble continues to expect sales growth of 6% to 7% and per-share earnings of 64 cents to 66 cents for its fourth quarter. In recent quarters, its snacks, coffee and pet segment has been one of the company's weaker spots, and investors will be watching to see how that business performs when Procter & Gamble reports Friday.

Higher dairy costs have been a problem for Kraft Foods, which reports Wednesday.

Tyson Foods' turnaround is expected to continue with strong fiscal third-quarter earnings reported on Monday.

Genpact, a business-process outsourcing company that has its roots in India, is scheduled to list on the NYSE Thursday. The company, which could raised as much as $635.3 million, ceased being wholly-owned by General Electric at the end of 2004 but continues to derive a large portion of its revenues from the conglomerate.

A full tally of votes from Bancroft trustees is expected by early next week as the family decides whether or not it will accept a $60 per share offer from Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. to buy Dow Jones, publisher of this Web site.

online.wsj.com



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (66963)7/28/2007 1:11:29 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Rate Hike Odds Plunge - Gold Should Benefit
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mish



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (66963)7/30/2007 6:37:51 PM
From: LTK007  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Raimondo:Who Killed Pat Tillman?
And why?
by Justin Raimondo
(edit:Justin Raimondo is an Anti-War Libertarian that is editor in chief of antiwar.com. He is an eloquent razor sharp intelligent individual in my opinion that also happens to be a forceful backer of Ron Paul. Max)

antiwar.com

<<Pat Tillman was slated to become an iconic figure, the purest representation of the New Bushian Man: a football hero who had refused a lucrative contract in order to enlist in the military, who could have had a life of riches and ease but chose, instead, to go to Afghanistan to take up arms against our enemies. Most important of all, for propaganda purposes, he looked the part, almost as if he'd been crafted to embody the virtues of a life in service to the Empire. His enlistment provoked a personal letter from then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his death provided the War Party with the opportunity to canonize him as a martyr to The Cause. An elaborate narrative was conjured by administration spinmeisters in the wake of his death, valorizing him as an example to be followed.

There was just one problem: Tillman wasn't a gung-ho warmonger. The San Francisco Chronicle reports:

"A side of Pat Tillman not widely known – a fiercely independent thinker who enlisted, fought, and died in service to his country yet was critical of President Bush and opposed the war in Iraq, where he served a tour of duty. He was an avid reader whose interests ranged from history books … to works of leftist Noam Chomsky, a favorite author."

Apparently a meeting between Tillman and Chomsky was planned for after Pat's return to the U.S., but he never returned. Instead, he was killed – under circumstances that Pat's mother, Mary, has always characterized as "murky," at best, and that seem, to my eye, at least, suspicious at worst. And it isn't just me. Now the release of thousands of pages of documents by the Pentagon, as the result of a Freedom of Information Act request, raise even more questions about the circumstances surrounding Pat Tillman's death:

"Army medical examiners were suspicious about the close proximity of the three bullet holes in Pat Tillman's forehead and tried without success to get authorities to investigate whether the former NFL player's death amounted to a crime, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press.

"'The medical evidence did not match up with the, with the scenario as described,' a doctor who examined Tillman's body after he was killed on the battlefield in Afghanistan in 2004 told investigators.

"The doctors – whose names were blacked out – said that the bullet holes were so close together that it appeared the Army Ranger was cut down by an M-16 fired from a mere 10 yards or so away."

This occurs after at least three investigations have supposedly been conducted, in which Tillman's death was attributed to "friendly fire," adding to the strong suspicion that there's something they're not telling us – something they have been trying desperately to cover up. "The Army used him," says his mother. "They knew right away he was killed by fratricide and [they] used him for their own purposes to promote the war, to get sympathy for the war, for five weeks."


Mary Tillman has long suggested that her son was deliberately murdered by his fellow soldiers. After initially dismissing her allegations as a case of grief-gone-over-the-edge, I've come to believe that there is something awfully fishy about this whole incident.

After all, why were Army attorneys sending "congratulatory e-mails" to each other for fending off criminal investigators on the case? The general who kept the details of Tillman's death from the Tillman family and the public claimed that he was having a problem with his memory, and that's why he just couldn't recall any important details of how Tillman's death was handled. Doctors who tried to reconcile the forensic evidence with the official account urged that a criminal investigation be pursued, but they were rebuffed. What's really suspicious, however, is that evidence of enemy fire at the scene was singularly lacking: no one was hit by enemy fire, nor was any equipment damaged. According to numerous reports, there were no Taliban in the area.

Now, I'm not willing to go as far as this guy, but I have to wonder: what if that meeting with Chomsky had come off, as scheduled, and Tillman had arisen to become a vocal critic of the Iraq war – which he bitterly opposed – and had even become involved in politics? The War Party's own propagandistic creation would have turned against them – a form of "blowback" that would have had a devastating effect on the effort to shore up support for our crazed foreign policy. Especially if Tillman teamed up with Democratic Party operatives, either to run for office himself or to endorse candidates opposed to the war.

The backtracking, the misinformation, the deliberate withholding of documents that required a FOIA request in the first place, and now the demotion of a general involved in the "investigation" – all point to a cover-up of massive proportions. Tillman had been keeping a journal since the age of 16, and he took it with him to Afghanistan. Two days after his demise, the journal, along with most of his personal property, mysteriously vanished. Adding another layer of murk, the White House is claiming "executive privilege" in refusing to release documents dealing with Tillman's death. But who is being protected?

First they told us Tillman was killed by hostile fire fighting for Bush's crusade to export "democracy" to Afghanistan. Then they said he was felled by "friendly fire," i.e., by his own troops. These new revelations suggest – although they don't conclusively prove – that this fire may not have been all that friendly.

What I want to know is this: how could someone who was apparently killed from 10 yards away – and was hit by three bullets in very close proximity
on the forehead – be a victim of "friendly fire" from 90 yards away, as claimed?

All of which raises another, increasingly troubling question: Who killed Pat Tillman – and why?
Justin Raimondo.>>
***************************