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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (616)	7/28/2007 10:19:43 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71409

physorg.com This is really likely BS, cause it is not possible to predict Earthquakes or crashes. A self-similar behavior. So far we have a lot of price fluctuations on a small time scale that are growing, but that discovery itself produces a feedback on market dynamics helping to reduce these fluctuations, as weird as it sounds. I bet a reliable prediction of Earthquakes is a Nobel Prize. Nobody won that one -g- Right now we have 10-15 point instant DOW spikes on the tape, so short-term volativity is diverging. So, the waters are not really calm, but you never know if the big one gonna hit.

To: Real Man who wrote (616)	7/28/2007 4:37:06 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 71409

I agree that bears are nervous, after so many disappointments in the last years. Even this selloff is not off the scale even if it looks somewhat larger than the last times. Go back to June 2005 and see what European stocks and the currency did after the attacks in UK. It looked really bleak but after only one week the train was back on its tracks and everything headed higher than previously thought (including DAX and the GBP). Get a long term chart and this selloff is just another correction soon to be bought. In a 3 months timeframe, of course, it looks nasty. Tails can not be predicted. This week's fall was impossible to see; I remember thet the Chinese HSCE made a fresh high on Wednesday (+2 at 13600). During midsession when they close the exchange for lunch a bunch of folks must have made the decision to stop the propping. Meanwhile, the korean market went into its closing rounds and also put in a 2.5% drop from its traded high. Whoever that was is unclear but there were no news, or rate hikes in china or so. The markets just asked lower and opened thoroughly in the red. It tried to recover, but the next day the carnage continued and it lost another 3%. Suddenly other markets also fell. Germany had a lot of reporting of Dax constituents but someone showed a card, asking the index contract a good 200 points lower. It didn't materialize at the open - evidently because most participants were just incredulous, but in 2 days with lot of fighting and record turnover, the market fell to a level well below. Maybe chartists will follow the markets down to the next support point, the much touted 200day avg. But no one can tell the sea change which could happen or not, until then. Who knows whether the currents are friendly? And we do have sellers in sizes. Private equity must place many billions in paper to finance their aquisition plans (theres a bloomberg article out on debt placement problems). Some of the worst aquisitions will possibly not be completed. The catalyst could possibly be the failure of a big aquisition house which can neither complete its IPO nor place what they promised as soft loans. So, a lot more than the expected hiccups in aquisitions occur. Doing what: lowering prices of targets and other companies which trade at a premium; driving risk spreads up. The protection agencies will possibly not protect a market which sees too many sellers and is by no means cheap. They could be overwhelmed by the sellers, just like LTCM. I agree with you - the ultimate decision is yet to be made. Could be that the mainstream media wields its influence and keeps reassuring folks to prevent them from selling and to avoid any panic... more and more I have the impression that besides charts, the media does have some influence on public perception..