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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (88339)	7/29/2007 9:20:26 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 206209

8.4 Bcf/d: Let's guesstimate the impact of that on our Balance of Trade. For simplistic purposes lets say $6.00 per million BTU. Ok 8.4E9*6/E3 = ~ 50E6 $ per day. At 30 day per month = 1.5E9$ per month. We continue to avoid energy independence. Bob

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (88339)	7/29/2007 10:44:05 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206209

Dont be fooled by the present ng futures strip as of today. The liquefaction and regasification capacity growth forecasted by several firms over the next few years appears to be materializing. Not like the oil production growth forecasted semi annually that never materialized. I see a very low probability of weather heat or hurricane taking the edge off of a major glut this year that will last until US production starts dropping and or we have a normal Winter. Without serious heat low ng prices wont make much difference. Coal and emissions credits are cheap and capacity is available without extreme weather. Meaining cheap NG wont be readily transformed to electricity. Gas fired plants have very large start up costs, so incremental spinning coal power can be procured cheaper. What happens when the global supply tips to the balanced point and spot lng goes for heating oil prices? I am thinking at EOG $60 close the eyes take the plunge all in and wait for $100+. Global LNG wont be sold cheaper than HO for ever.