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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (238321)	7/30/2007 3:58:25 PM
From: SARMAN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Nazine, stop embarrassing yourself. Talk about something you know, i.e. Israel. Come to think of it you know nothing about Israel. You do not live and never lived there.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (238321)	7/30/2007 3:59:06 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

So if they send enough people, talk it up enough, declare an emirate, declare the global jihad, fight the US, fight the Iraqis, and yet lose, then they look silly. This is much to be wished for. Remember the War of the Narratives. It's important, and AQ has been quicker to realize it than we. I remember their narrative. And obviously they want to be in an Arab country at the end of the day. But they really haven't sent that many people, they have caused havoc, probably more Americans have been killed and certainly more Americans have been killed and wounded than have gone there from other countries. They will lose in Iraq--there is no question in my mind that they will lose. But, unhappily, that doesn't mean the US wins. Or that Iraq wins. No one is going to "win" this thing, with the possible exception of Iran (and even there, they seem to be in process of pulling defeat from the jaws of plausible victory by overreaching and not speaking softly enough). What is so great in Waziristan to protect? Their very survival. A refuge where they can plan in relative peace and still have training camps (according to reports I've read). A lot of sympathizers, with whose help they may in the ripeness of time take over their own state in the form of Pakistan. Eventual ccess to Dr. Khan and his technology etc. It's a big mistake to over-focus on one or two men in a networked organization. Ask yourself, where is the trained officer core operating right now? and what are their strategic goals? That is a far more important question. I do focus on strategic considerations. But you're assuming that they are short term planners. I think that they think they can wait. They don't have to do everything themselves. They are following an 18th century philosophy that was barely an update on medieval thought. We tend to forget that there is a good reason why Saudi Arabia is near medieval culturally--it was just 2 generations ago or so that they were medieval, prior to the oil boom. Nomads in the desert. But to think that this means that they are stupid is an error. Out of synch with the west--yes. But not stupid. And with a different sense of time, generations, and goals. All JMHO, of course. Not an Arabic speaker or a student of Islam. Just read a few books, articles and have thought about it some.