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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (12594)	8/2/2007 8:55:32 PM
From: Ann Corrigan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 224728

Looks like a Giuliani/Thompson ticket. Together they could wrap up the South, West and Eastern regions: >Giuliani and South Carolina Jay Cost - Horse Race Blog Aug 2, 1007 The Christian Science Monitor had a great article on the role that South Carolina is playing in the Republican nominating contest. It is well worth a read. I have thought for a while that South Carolina is the key state in the GOP nomination. Depending upon the candidate it picks, it will signal to us that there is not going to be a drawn out primary battle. One thing that might drag out a primary fight on the GOP side after February fifth is if the super primary produces a split decision - particularly one in which a given candidate wins a given region. I think this is very possible. Consider the states up on the GOP side on February fifth. California Primary Illinois Primary Minnesota Precinct Caucuses New Jersey Primary New York Primary West Virginia State Presidential Convention Alabama Primary Arkansas Primary Connecticut Primary Delaware Party-run Primary Georgia Primary Montana Caucus Missouri Primary North Dakota Caucus Oklahoma Primary Tennessee Primary Utah Primary Alaska Precinct Caucus *Arizona Primary There is a good regional mix of states here. I can see these results favoring more than one candidate. I can even see them favoring up to three candidates. If, for instance, Thompson emerges as the "Southern candidate," Romney as the "Midwestern candidate," and Rudy as the "Northeastern and Western candidate," this primary fight is not going to end on February fifth. It will continue - and it could get ugly as each of the candidates would have a geographical region in his pocket. [This is why, if I were the secretary of state of a state considering moving its primary, I would select February 12. That might present an opportunity to be the tiebreaker.] Obviously, South Carolina will not have the ability to preempt such a fight simply by virtue of its delegates. There are not enough of them to do that. However, the Palmetto State will give us a good sense of whether Fred Thompson will emerge as the Southern candidate, or whether - as I indicated is possible last week - Giuliani's terror fighting credentials will split the cultural conservative coalition in the South. If there is to be major GOP opposition to his candidacy, it will be from the South. So, if Giuliani finishes first in South Carolina, I would take that as a sign that there probably will not be an extended primary battle - that Rudy is good enough for the South. Might he be? He might. That was the whole point of last week's profile on him. Giuliani has a "second issue dimension" that strongly favors him above everybody else (with the possible exception of McCain). Will he be? I don't know. The CSM trenchantly articulates the question that does not yet have an answer: A conundrum for some local conservative leaders is Mr. Giuliani's generally high poll numbers, despite his support for abortion rights. Though some say his ratings will drop once Republican voters pay closer attention to the race, others say his celebrity after 9/11 and his perceived electability may be sidelining social issues dear to evangelicals. "I do think that prolife issues will play heavy in [evangelicals'] decision," said Katon Dawson, chairman of the state Republican Party. "But I don't see it as the single disqualifier this time." Ultimately, this is why I think South Carolina is the key to the GOP primary. After Labor Day, I will be watching the polls there carefully. Right now, Giuliani has a modest lead in our average - but I am not inclined to put much stock in that. It is too early to start using these polls to analyze. And, after all, we still do not know what kind of factor Fred Thompson will be.<