Clinton Taps Reiner, Obama Touts Roots as California Ads Begin
By Hans Nichols
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Rob Reiner, a Hollywood mogul more comfortable avoiding solicitous phone calls than making them, is dialing for new donors for Democrat Hillary Clinton. She'll need them for the California presidential primary on Feb. 5.
``All the easy money is gone,'' said Chad Griffin, a Los Angeles-based strategist who advises Reiner. The candidates, faced with more than 20 contests on ``Tsunami Tuesday,'' now need ``raisers who are willing to go deeper into the Rolodex.''
The California vote will mark an important shift in the campaign as the race evolves from the intimacy of Iowa's living rooms and New Hampshire's town halls to the airwaves of some of the most-populous U.S. states. It will resemble a general election, where Senators Clinton, Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards will rely on news coverage, punctuated by expensive television advertising, to communicate with voters.
``This will be the first state where retail politics is not the driving force,'' said Bill Carrick, a longtime California political operative. ``This will be wholesale, and it's going to be expensive.''
A statewide advertising blitz may cost as much as $4 million a week, said Carrick.
The California election, which follows South Carolina's Jan. 26 Democratic vote, will be the biggest prize in what will amount to a national primary on Feb. 5. More than 20 states with 1,688 delegates, including 441 in California, will be at stake for Democrats, with 2,025 needed for the nomination.
`In the Hunt'
Having their state ``in the hunt'' is a new feeling for Californians, said Willie Brown, the former mayor of San Francisco. ``It's the first time since 1968'' that California will matter, he said. Robert Kennedy, then a senator from New York, won the California primary that year and was shot by an assassin on the night of his victory.
The more than 3 million Democratic primary voters are scattered in four of the country's most-expensive advertising markets, meaning the outcome may hinge on who can afford the most airtime.
``It will take a ton of money to win California, primarily in paid media,'' said Brown.
Obama, 46, hit the airwaves first, spending $570,000 in the Bay Area market from Jan. 13 to 20, according to Evan Tracey of Arlington, Virginia-based TNS Media Intelligence. Northern California's heavily Democratic corridor can affect election outcomes more than more-populous Southern California can, said Brown.
Benefiting From Bill
Clinton, 60, who has a double-digit lead in the polls, goes into the state with some advantages. She's better known and benefits from her husband's success in turning the home state of Ronald Reagan into a Democratic stronghold.
She also has the backing of the state's party establishment, including the senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Clinton enjoys strong support among Hispanic voters, who make up an estimated 18 percent of Democratic primary voters.
She and her husband are ``proven commodities in the Latino community,'' said Gloria Molina, the Los Angeles County supervisor who is currently neutral. That connection is even stronger among female voters. ``There's an automatic relationship for Latina women with Clinton,'' she said. ``As heads of households and working mothers, Latinas can identify with Hillary.''
`Black-Brown' Divide
While Obama ``has had an amazing impact with young Latinos,'' Molina said, many of them aren't registered to vote. He may also fall victim to the ``black-brown'' divide that has plagued Southern California politics, said Molina.
Obama has his own edge. With his charismatic style, he may play better on television. And with a slight money advantage to pay for his air war, he has the kind of fresh face that Californians have embraced in the past.
Obama might also benefit from independents, who are barred from voting in the Republican contest. Their numbers may exceed 300,000 in the Democratic primary, making up more than 10 percent of participants, said Carrick.
Obama, born to a Kenyan father, plans to highlight his own status as the son of a non-American to appeal to Hispanics and first-generation Americans, said Eric Garcetti, co-chairman of Obama's California campaign.
``He matches this state like a glove,'' said Garcetti, who acknowledged that Clinton has an advantage with the Hispanic community.
Psychological Boost
For one candidate to take the lead, he or she needs to win California for both mathematical and ``psychological reasons,'' said Chris Lehane, a San Francisco-based Democratic strategist. Because neither Clinton nor Obama ``can lay a direct geographical claim to California,'' said Lehane, ``this is where they will fight it out.''
Most of California's Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally, depending on statewide totals as well as the candidates' performance in each of the state's 53 congressional districts. Thus, as in Nevada, it's possible one candidate can win the popular vote, while the other walks away with more delegates.
Other states that will vote on Feb. 5 include Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Tennessee. California's importance to the race is underlined by the fact that the states with the second- and third-most delegates at stake that day are New York and Illinois, where Clinton and Obama have home-state advantages.
To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Los Angeles, California at hnichols2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 23, 2008 00:12 EST |
