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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcher who wrote (83031)	8/3/2007 9:32:04 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

I think it should get a lot worse in terms of real economic impact and broad stock declines if the credit bubble is really toast. The debt bubble never really burst in 2000, despite all the claims that the unwinding of the stock market took care of the imbalances. Stock bubble was just replaced with real estate bubble. My long-term thesis (and that of many on this thread) remains that the credit bubble now rests on the combination of real estate and emerging markets bubbles, and the question is whether the real estate bubble collapse is large enough to take down the whole enchilada. We're certainly due. Then again, I basically sat out most of this last cyclical bull - except for a few gold stocks - because of my long-term concerns. So, my relative performance has not been very good and you might want to disregard my advice. I just know that I don't need to get rich quick - I just need to make high probability, low risk returns from here on out. And that means waiting for the credit bubble to resolve. Is it happening now? I hope so - I look forward to elimination of much of the fast money gamesmanship from the markets and a return to "investing": being able to put the money back on auto-pilot like the 1980s and 1990s. A mark-to-reality in the bond markets is probably the best hope for that. BC