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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (67242)	8/7/2007 9:00:35 AM
From: ballsschweaty	Respond to of 116555

westy, I see the risks but that is the opportunity. Consumer confidence recently hit a 6 year high and July was very strong for retailers. Gas prices coming down rapidly and that will put more money into consumer's pockets. I think the mortgage mess will quiet down and we'll see some comfort coming that the Fed is inclined to ease and that the consumer is still spending strong. The job situation is still fairly robust. Under these conditions, I think the Vix and credit spreads will come down and this will put a strong bid under the market. Stock buybacks are still strong and FCB diversification of their reserve funds are going into stocks. Record high short interest and almost record long positions by the Commercials (so called smart money) tell me that the scared money has exited and a big short unwind is necessary before the market can really roll over.