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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (695)	8/7/2007 4:48:08 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

Yes, I suspect at least 50% from the top is more like it, given all the LTCM stuff we know has been going on. What we see now is seismic activity, 300-point moves up and down, which is a precursor to a very large move down. Despite the many cries "the bottom is in", etc., I don't think clustered 300-point moves up and down is a good thing. I agree with him, the probability of a crash, while low overall, is much higher now than ever. As I posted on this thread before, there are ways to see it. It's volativity, self-similar behavior of the fluctuations, the power-law distribution, expanding from 5-min moves, to 60-min chart, then to dailies, weeklies, and monthlies. While we remain lower than maxpain for August, I don't want to play the sharp rise at this time.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (695)	8/7/2007 8:00:34 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71454

On the other hand, I suspect a sizable sharp downdraft, if we ever get one, will be the LT bottom for this market. I could be wrong, but I suspect the monetary shower will be unleashed by Bernanke if we ever have a sizable crisis, preventing the Great Depression. Dollar will be devalued some, maybe 30-40% more from here, but nothing like Zimbabwe. Lots of Great Depression cries will be out there if we get down a lot. Not gonna happen.