Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: graphicsguru who wrote (238294)	8/7/2007 1:01:06 PM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

By Q4 they will have both Barcelona and Phenom. From a production stand point, 1 million finished products in Q4 is doable from 200-250 300 mm wafer starts per week during the 13 weeks of Q3, and that's afer assuming horrible yields. 1 million Opterons per quarter not doable? The global server market is 15+ million units. Surely at its height in 2006 AMD achieved better than 25% unit share in a quarter, 25% unit share corresponds roughly to 1 millon chips per quarter.

To: graphicsguru who wrote (238294)	8/7/2007 1:54:03 PM
From: wbmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: AMD has never sold a million Opterons in a quarter. Let's guestimate AMD's volumes in servers. Based on their market share data, consolidated here: siliconinvestor.com They had an average ASP in Q2 of $62, and an overall MSS of 22.9%. In servers, their ASP was $384, but their MSS was only 12.8%. Overall, they sold 15.3M units, and revenue would be this figure times the average ASP, or $948.6M. The total available market was 66.8M. I can derive the following equations: X = desktop units Y = mobile units Z = server units X + Y + Z = 15.3M We can substitute out for mobile, since that segment is harder to guess at. Y = (15.3M - X - Z) Another equation, with above substitution: X49 + (15.3M - X - Z)63 + Z*384 = 948.6M Rewritten: 49X + 963.9M - 63X - 63Z + 384Z = 948.6M 321Z - 14X = -15.3M Z = 0.043614X - 47,664 Here are some possible values: X = 14M: Z = 562,932, Y = 737,068 X = 13M: Z = 519,318, Y = 1,780,682 X = 12M: Z = 475,704, Y = 2,824,296 X = 11M: Z = 432,090, Y = 3,867,910 X = 10M: Z = 388,476, Y = 4,911,524 X = 9M: Z = 344,862, Y = 5,955,138 We know that AMD has been steadily increasing mobile volumes, and they currently have 17% of the market, which Intel claims will soon cross over their desktop volumes. If we take Intel's total shipments of 51.0M parts, and assume that mobile shipments are now at 40%, that would imply that AMD's 17% share amounts to about 4.18M units. This would imply desktop units between 10-11M, and server units of about ~400k. It's a rough estimate, but at least the data supports it. It also supports a total available server market of about 3.1M units, which fits with instinct. So you're right. AMD is not likely to sell 1M server units. In fact, half that would be a lofty goal.