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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandeep who wrote (76445)	8/8/2007 5:56:36 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

I have my krash cap on despite the rise. There is too much risk going into expiration because of volativity. I think most likely we will be up back to the old July highs of 50 for the QQQQ, but for the SPOOS the move may be about done at 1505-1510 (for next week), which is also a resistance. It ain't CSCO that's driving the q-s up. However, volativity is such that we can move anywhere, and if we really start dropping soon, the market could krash because of delta-hedging of all these puts. In other words, the win for option sellers is not guaranteed (it never is), and may turn into a huge loss due to lack of liquidity and huge volativity. But it's more probable than a loss. -g- What's worse, if we do move up big into expiry, we will likely drop big afterwards. If any of these funds blows up, we'll see a krash, they may get a visit from the margin man, etc. They are sitting on some losses now. Volativity raises the value of all OOM options they sold dramatically So? Be da quick or da dead in this market, IMHO. Very risky.