Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (340252)	8/8/2007 10:10:50 PM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Cuts were priced in before and disappeared in a few sessions -- I trust the futures not in giving me guidance. There are too many moving parts to this mess we are in now, including exposure to the unpredictable actions of others who are largely outside US influence (e.g. China). Such factors were not present in substance in previous incarnations of similar messes. IOW the working Fed models for crisis management can no longer be counted on to not fuck up due to these external occurrences = unpredictable non-traditional outcomes are now possible = today is much, much riskier. When the next big global financial event outside the normal distribution arrives (hypothetical example, a country the size of Spain goes under and really gives a lesson in the merits of risk aversion) I think the jig will be up. Only a matter of time now, and more debt just keeps piling up in the meantime

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (340252)	8/9/2007 11:59:58 AM
From: stan_hughes	Respond to of 436258

Like I was saying here Message 23776333 most blackboxes out there aren't prepared for the brave new world -- Message 23776826 I think Vi is right -- we should soon be hearing about more hedge funds being put in a pine box, not because of their direct credit exposure per se, but for having got caught in all this crossfire in the stock and options markets that they couldn't keep up with. When the big one comes JSP Trader is also going to get shut out from making any decisions good or bad when the systems get overloaded a la 1987. People had better not have any positions open that they can't live with and hold through a crisis and out the other side