Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: graphicsguru who wrote (238438)	8/9/2007 3:49:07 AM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<<<<<Pirasa, your claim of 23 million units in Q4 '07 does not make any sense. Suppose we accept your figure of 70 million units in Q4 '06. I don't think anyone has ever claimed AMD achieved more than 25% overall unit market share. That would mean 17.5 million units. But if you recall, AMD was saying in Q1 and Q2 '06 that they were intentionally building inventory for Q4. So the best you can assert is that AMD actually manufactured something like 16 million units in Q4 '06. Even that sounds high to me. I'd be interested if you have a reference on your 70 million unit figure. So you expect them to sit idle in Q3 2007 then? This year, like every year, Q4 is preceeded by Q3. And Q2. Forget Windsor entirely for the moment. Assume 4000 300 mm wafer starts per week. Conservative number, so late into the 65 ramp. Times 13 = 52000 wafers per quarter. 70685sq mm wafer area, 126 sq mm die size for Brisbane. Reduce wafer area 10% for edge effects. Assume 90% yields. Voila, you produced 23.4 million KGDs in a quarter. Keep in mind that I totally ignored existing inventory and ongoing Windsor production before you start objecting to my numbers above. <<<<<<<<<<<<Between Q4 '06 and Q4 '07, there is a limited additional ramp of fab 36 and some ramp down of fab 30. More importantly, however, there is a huge shift from single core to dual core. In Q4 '07, you won't be able to give away a single core part. Buggi can already buy single core parts for 16 Euros. What do you think they will cost in Q4? You fail to realize the potential of burgeoning, nearly mature 65 nm and 300 mm ramps in a world class facility with a 126 sq mm die size to work with. The capacity is there regardless of how much you put down AMD's capabilities. The $25-30 Sempron has created a new market, considering that $25 is above marginal cost, yeah why not? <<<<<I don't have links for the fraction of single core parts AMD was selling in Q4 '06, but I recall seeing that it was rather significant. Perhaps 40 - 60%. When you take that into account, there will be very little increase in capacity. No. Capacity is increasing very fast. The die sizes haven't changed significantly from single core 90 nm to dual core 65 nm and the dinner plates have gotten 2.25 times as big. Plus the number of 300 mm 65 nano wafer starts is increasing from quarter to quarter. AMD's recent and current psychotic emphasis on acquiring as many design wins as it can and very high volume customers like Dell and Toshiba is indirect proof for that. <<<<<And AMD is not making noises about building inventory in H1 for H2. Why not? Because inventory of AMD's current parts is losing value at an astonishing rate, and the company is strapped for cash. Life is very different for AMD than a year ago. AMD publicly stated that it is comfortable with the quality of the inventory it has. This was 3 weeks ago in the Q2 earnings CC. I get from that the inventory is mostly dual core. Plus they already did a writedown and cleaned up house. If you had bothered to check their quarterly reports you would have seen that they in fact entered Q3 07 with higher inventory than they entered Q3 06. They have rational pricing that is conducive to moving parts quick, and the market overall is expected to be very good in Q3 and Q4. Whatever production deficiency they might encounter will be remedied through their inventory.