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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238441)	8/9/2007 4:05:34 AM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I did not predict 24 million K8s PLUS 1 million Barcs. I presented alternative scenarios both of which would lead to at least cash flow neutrality for AMD in Q4 07. My initial post = 20 milion k8 * 60 ASP + 300 * 1 million from Barc + not a disastrous ATI side = cash flow neutrality for AMD in Q4 07. You and a few others = 1 million server CPUs in a quarter is nuts. Me = Barc core means server plus Phenom. One full Q4, overall market expected to be very good, pent-up demand for brand new architecture, lots of hungry, compatible existing motherboards. It is not as implausible as you suggest. Me = but if you insist on a number less than $300 million for Barc, the deficiency could also be made up by selling more K8s. How about 23-24 million K8s and just $100 million in Barc revenue? That also lets AMD breakeven, forgetting any upside potential from ATI for the moment. The objectors = 23 million in a quarter is impossible. The market is smaller than you think (70 - 80 million in Q4 07) in Q4. Me= The market was around 70 million in Q4 06. Production and inventory wise, AMD will have no problem supplying 23-24 million CPUs in a quarter. As long as they don't fuck up pricing, they can sell them, the production capacity is in place. <<<<<<<<<<Pirasa, let's try a different perspective, shall we? 23-24M units in Q4 2007 from AMD. Let's say the overall market grows by 10% from 70M to 77M. That means AMD will achieve their long-time goal of 30%, which will be huge news indeed. In any case, you're on the record predicting 24M units for Q4 and one million quad cores shipped in Q4 alone. I think your prediction is totally far-fetched, but then again, it's your money. Tenchusatsu