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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (238446)	8/9/2007 5:11:59 AM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

When you do not take your eyes off the pricing ball, good things will happen. Like a 40% unit increase QonQ in Q2 2007. I guess that was beyond your "most EXTREME optimistic" scenarios too. Regardless of the banter here, the AMD line-up is good enough to move, in the current and near-future pricing atmospheres. The $169 6000+ is a top seller in Newegg for instance, despite being a 90 nm chip. In fact, 8 out of the top 20 top sellers in CPUs are AMD at Newegg. Their price/performance ratios are very good, especially for those users who are not keen on overclocking. AMD mobos are usually slightly cheaper than their Intel counterparts as well. In desktop, a 2.3 - 2.8 GHz range in Brisbanes supplemented by Windsors in the 2.6-3.2 GHz range, selling at maybe slightly less than the price points for the current 2-3 GHz range should drive good volume in Q4. There is also the possibility of Brisbane hitting 3-3.2 GHz in Q4. In laptop, there appears to be good momentum behind AMD right now. AMD has been doing a good job of filling the vacuum created by the demise of Core Duo. <<<<<<<<<<<<@AMD Q4 I can't understand, how a person could dream about 30% or even more in Q4 for AMD with that disappointing product-lineup . They will have no new desktops untill the very end of Q4 or even Q1-2008, so the current Brisbane situation, which is very bad, will even worse and there are people who predict huge marketshare gains! Living on a different planet I would call that. The only thing AMD could do (try) is to lower prices even more just to hold marketshare. The 22-24% mark should be a HUGE hurdle in the coming quarters - with that they could reach AT BEST around 17Mio. units overall in Q4, when we are very generious it could be a 18Mio. number, but this is my EXTREME optimistic scenario. BUGGI

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (238446)	8/9/2007 8:54:11 AM
From: kpf	Respond to of 275872

so the current Brisbane situation, which is very bad, No argument current numbers are still unsatisfactory. However improving GM by five points in a quarter of ASP down ten points - which AMD did last q - ain't shabby at all. ;-) Wrt volume, i see nothing that would prevent AMD from selling 20M MPUs in Q4 and get back to the quarter of units they had a year ago already. Btw completely independent from their lineup but merely as a function of capacity and ASP. K.

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (238446)	8/9/2007 8:54:12 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Buggi: In the mobile area, K8 is competitive. 8-10 million mobiles would go a long way towards breakeven for AMD. That would be 1 to 1.5 billion dollars in revenue alone. Add to that chipsets and GPUs for another $400-600 million. Then add $100 million for K10s and 8-10 million K8 desktops for another $400-$600 million plus $200-400 million in chipsets and GPUs. Totaling it up gets us to $2.1 to 3.2 billion enough for breakeven and even profits for Q4. With 20-25% unit market share and revenue market share. And many people thought that prior to the K7 launch that AMD's product lineup was disappointing. Ditto for the K8 launch. Yet they succeeded even against the illegal business practices of Intel. Pete