Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pirasa2 who wrote (238481)	8/9/2007 1:22:40 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 275872

Dear Pirasa2: So even you see that your $40-50 AMD mobile ASPs claim is ridiculous. As for the $209 minimum claim, that is your assertion, not mine. Even I don't claim no discount occurs. Second your methods forgot that AMD is in some notebooks in Q1 and Q2. In Q1/07, AMD was in 14% of the 21.8 million notebooks sold. So Intel had 86% of 21.8 million or 18.7 million mobile CPUs. Since Intel sold $2.441 billion in mobile CPUs, their ASP was $131, not the $118 you claimed. A good deal of those were "mobile" Celerons (have you looked at retail lately?). So $131 is a 37% discount of $209. Using $866 for chipset revenue yields a chipset price of $46 assuming all Intel based notebooks use the Intel chipset. NVidia was in some of those, so that ASP is likely higher. For Q3, notebooks are supposed to be over 40% of total CPU shipments. And from retail, half of them are AMD based. So 80 million CPU in Q4 works out to 32-38 million of them being notebooks. 25% of that is 8-9.5 million. $154 to $354 times 63% is $97 to $223. Using $110 to $130 ((low^3 * high)^0.25 = 120) times 8 to 9.5 million, yields $0.88 to $1.235 billion for notebook CPUs alone. Using $40 for chipsets nets another $320 to $380 million. Plus how many discrete GPUs. Say 25% at $30 each or $60-71 million more. Total AMD mobile division revenues, $1.26 to $1.686 billion. Better than half that needed for breakeven. Pete