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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238524)	8/9/2007 4:01:43 PM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<<<<<<<<<Pirasa, so I was wrong about the number of units in the overall market. That doesn't make you a freakin' genius. I really don't care whether you want to call it a "prediction" or an "alternative scenario." What you are hoping for is highly improbable in my mind. Would you like to discuss the chances of said "alternative scenarios" ever occurring? That, in my mind, is more meaningful than simply fantasizing over what could be. Tenchusatsu If I were a genius I wouldn't be hanging here. I did my due diligence on AMD carefully in late 2006 and came to the conclusion that I should be short AMD then. So I did short a modest amount and in several months I made a few thousand bucks. Then I put it into neutral, no AMD position whatsoever for a few months, mainly because I didn't have reason to be long and the price was too low to be short, especially in a bull market. After the Q2 CC, I got interested again. Despite having a comparatively inferior product, AMD management had managed to increase units by 40%, notebook was surprisingly strong, Toshiba had come on board with probably Sony next, and retail pricing errors had all been corrected. I added to those the market's expectation that Q3 and Q4 were going to be good quarters for CPUs. Finally, Barc would soon appear, providing AMD with much needed prestige and high-end sales. So now I am bullish on AMD and my expectation is a break-even (in terms of FCFF) Q4. It can happen an infinite number of ways, and I find a decent showing by Barc and good K8 unit movement the most likely way it will happen. If you do not agree with the likelihood of this scenario whereby AMD has to generate roughly 1500 million in CPU revenue, then we will agree to disagree and maybe I will buy my calls from you in the market.