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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (89027)	8/9/2007 7:54:41 PM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206160

Dennis I really appreciate your daily update posts! LC

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (89027)	8/10/2007 7:47:09 PM
From: Dennis Roth	Respond to of 206160

DJ US GAS: Storm Worries Drive Futures 3.55% Higher ( No price table today ) futuresource.quote.com Natural gas futures finished 3.55% higher Friday after forecasters midday released news of two Atlantic tropical weather systems developing that could form into strong storms and pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. BLOOMBERG: Nymex Natural Gas Rises to Six-Week High on Hurricane Concern bloomberg.com ``It is simply a tropical wave which is about to move off the African coast into the tropical Atlantic, and some computer models are trying to develop the system,'' said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ``There is no cause for concern at this time for anybody and computer models will vary from day to day.'' DJ CFTC: Gas Speculators Reduce Contracts, Remain Net Short futuresource.quote.com === The heat wave is over for the NorthEast wxmaps.org cpc.ncep.noaa.gov cpc.ncep.noaa.gov The heat - Month to date cpc.ncep.noaa.gov == The Tropical Atlantic - The NHC sees nothing developing over the weekend. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN nhc.noaa.gov As to the hurricane, which the GFS computer model conjures up out of a low which hasn't even left Africa yet and puts it over Puerto Rico by Saturday August 18th, the 4:30pm Area Forecast Discussion by the Nation Weather Service's San Juan Office put this this way: from srh.noaa.gov ...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON A LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AFRICA. THE GFS HAS BECOME VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND DEVELOPS IT INTO A HURRICANE AND PLACES IT OVER PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT ON 18 AUGUST. BUT A NUMBER OF THINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY NOT BE THE SCENARIO WE EXPERIENCE. FIRST THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY SURFACE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW ON THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND 12 DEGREES NORTH. SECOND...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS FORMED A LINE WHICH IS SOUTH OF 10 NORTH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. THIRD...PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FORCING THE MOISTURE SOUTH. FOURTH...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG NOW AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AND FINALLY THE PATH WHICH THE GFS PROJECTS THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION BETWEEN 24 AND 48 DEGREES WEST IN THE TROPICS AND A SUBSTANTIAL SAHARAN AIR LAYER NORTH OF IT. THEREFORE AM VERY WARY OF PLACING ANY CREDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION OF NEARLY 110 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED NEAR 17 NORTH 60 WEST AT 00Z ON SATURDAY 18 AUGUST...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY UNUSUAL WINDS FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AND KEPT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY LEVEL. IF THE FORECAST IS TO VERIFY IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE EVIDENT ON SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW HAS MOVED ENTIRELY OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER EVALUATE WHETHER IT CAN DEVELOP VERY MUCH. UNTIL THEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY. The hurricane is more of a ghost in the machine than a reality at this point. Enough to scare the shorts.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (89027)	8/13/2007 4:53:33 PM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206160

DJ UPDATE:US GAS:Questionable Storm Path Leads To Drop In Futures (Table of Settlement and Cash prices at link) futuresource.quote.com Natural gas futures whipsawed from a six-week high Monday to settle less than 1% lower as traders temporarily lost faith that an Atlantic tropical depression would enter the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and threaten oil and gas production. BLOOMBERG: Nymex Natural Gas Declines as Traders Work to Assess Storm Risk bloomberg.com ``Over the next couple days it's anticipated it will strengthen to a tropical storm' eventually a hurricane, National Hurricane Center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said. ``There's certainly no threat to the U.S. at this time; it's 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. ==== National Hurricane Center's projected path for Tropical Depression FOUR nhc.noaa.gov And a collection of a dozen different computer models projected paths for the storm. sfwmd.gov Also, the possible paths for Invest 91L, already in the Carribean but it hasn't developed into anything yet. It could hit Texas. sfwmd.gov === The Heat Wave, remember that? It's still around, hanging on. wxmaps.org cpc.ncep.noaa.gov cpc.ncep.noaa.gov === Hurricanes coming and the NG market sells off. Who'd a thunk it?