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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: misen who wrote (238577)	8/10/2007 2:19:39 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 275872

Well said, Misen. My problem with yield and output predictions made on a virtual "table napkin" is this. No one can verify that all of the assumptions that were made are valid. You can skew one number here, assume perfect yields there, and voila! Instant volumes! If it were that easy, anyone could do it. Neither Intel nor AMD would need to pay people to do it for them. They could just recruit some Yahooligan with "11 years of experience." Tenchusatsu

To: misen who wrote (238577)	8/10/2007 5:33:24 PM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

I used a 90% yield assumption since it is hard to qualify anything less as "world leading" which AMD publicly has done many times for its two fabs. You strike down my yield assumption, I point out in response that 4000 WSPW is conservative at this stage. You counter by the need to accomodate Barc, I response by claiming that Barc will take up less than 10% of 65 nano wafer starts in Q4. This will go on and on. But the gist of the matter is this: can AMD, which has a 18 million q4 06 under its belt, accomplish a 23-24 million Q4 07? The sales side of that feat is more difficult than the production side, I give you that much. But regarding production, we are dealing with an almost fully ramped 65 nano, 300 mm, 30000 WSPM capable FAB + a not nearly fully ramped down 90 nano 200 mm FAB here. It would be embarrassing for AMD management if after sinking several billions into those fabs they turn out to be limited in capacity to just 25% of world demand. And Tench, go revisit your posts which insisted on claiming AMD had 13 million unit sales in Q4 06, try to appreciate the civility of responses or lack of insulting responses to that crap, before attacking any one personally. And quit trying to find a big brother to protect you from "hooligans" like me who figuratively bang your head on asphalt repeatedly.