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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 1coolpiglet who wrote (89116)	8/11/2007 7:44:19 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206089

Maybe global warming is taking a break this Summer. This cooling season is only slightly warmer than normal, 10% cooler than last Summer. This heat spell will pass in another week or so and be about 1 week shorter than the one last year and not as severe. We are still on track to 3,800 bcf by 11/1 with some intervention from hurricanes. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/htdocs/temp/wcool.states

To: 1coolpiglet who wrote (89116)	8/11/2007 10:25:53 AM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 206089

>>>The weeks last year that had the two draws had triple digit CDDs. If that had been repeated this year, it is likely that we would have seen a draw. Next week is forecast to be similar, 92CDD.<<< I have gotten a little lazy - or absorbed trading the subprime meltdown. What I do know which might have skewed this year's numbers to the high side from last year's is that the LNG imports are way up. I think that with the lower prices here, that trend has begun to reverse. This year's large volume may be due to last year's high prices. I have to suppose that Putin who takes such delight in torturing Eastern Europe is causing US LNG imports to drop. I wonder if some industrial demand has returned with the low NG prices. This is what makes the injection numbers hard to interpret. We have higher production and imports. Consider the EEI electricity number for the week ending August 4: Electric power, (mil. kw hrs) (EEI) Aug 4 93,540 (current) 86,636 (last week) 98,583 (last year) So electric consumption is down. CDDs are down but not by much. And the injections are up but not by much. This suggest to me that some industrial is in fact back. I also sense that the liquids were down (strippers off last year?) and they may have come back. Perhaps the refiners are running harder as we move away from the Katrina impact still being felt at this time last year.

To: 1coolpiglet who wrote (89116)	8/12/2007 8:36:23 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206089

In my humble opinion, the markets this week will be moved more by the story of the developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa than Thursday's NG inventory number. This could provide the first real hurricane scare of the season. Longer term, I believe we are still on the path for full storage and gas on gas competition in the fall. Significant destruction of GOM NG production by a hurricane is a low probability event, but the memory of 2005 lingers.