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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (2573)	8/11/2007 12:14:09 PM
From: Mark Marcellus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

Interesting take on what's happening from a short hedge fund manager: dealbreaker.com

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (2573)	8/15/2007 2:58:29 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

CFC Option Arms Update: $325 billion of these loans will default Countrywide ... being forced to hold on to more loans Washington Mutual recognized $706 million in uncollected interest major option-ARM lender, IndyMac Bancorp Inc., has been even harder hit Message 23784500

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (2573)	10/24/2007 7:24:10 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6370

I wasted some money on options yet the short side cranks out dollars like an ATM. Thank you Merrill: Shares of Mortgage Lenders Plummet on Merrill Lynch's $7.9 Billion Charge ................................... CFC Option Arms Update: $325 billion of these loans will default Countrywide ... being forced to hold on to more loans Washington Mutual recognized $706 million in uncollected interest major option-ARM lender, IndyMac Bancorp Inc., has been even harder hit CFC, IMB, WM: Countrywide falls to 4 1/2 year low on option ARM concerns By Alistair Barr Last Update: 11:37 AM ET Oct 24, 2007 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC 13.83, -1.22, -8.1%) shares fell more than 9% to a 4 1/2 year low on Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that delinquencies on a type of prime mortgage originated by the company are rising rapidly. Option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs, give borrowers a range of repayment choices, including some that allow people to pay none of the principal and only part of the interest due each month. That choice tacks on more money to the total size of the loan, a process known as negative amortization. UBS AG (UBS 53.55, -1.46, -2.6%) prepared an analysis for the WSJ showing that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide in 2006 and re-packaged into mortgage-backed securities are at least 60 days past due, the newspaper said. That compares with an average option-ARM delinquency rate of 2.56% for the industry, the WSJ noted. Countrywide shares fell 9.3% to $13.65 during morning trading on Wednesday. The stock touched a low of $13.47 earlier in the day. That's the lowest level since March 2003 .......................... See how bad it is? In total Countrywide's plan would reach out to about 82,000 borrowers for some kind of relief. Subprime mortgages -- those made to people with poor credit histories -- have become a problem for the global economy. As people who took out subprime mortgages from 2005 through the first half of 2007 defaulted at increasing rates, bonds backed by those mortgages began to lose value. More than 50 mortgage lenders have gone out of business this year. A seizure in the global credit markets precipitated by the mortgage crunch has led a consortium of banks to propose a fund of up to $100 billion to buy distressed assets. So far this year, Countrywide has completed about 20,000 loan modifications -- a figure that represents less than 5 percent of the more than 500,000 loans the lender reports were behind in payments as of last month. The figure amounts to about 24 percent of the roughly 82,000 loans the company said were in foreclosure as of September. .................... REPEAT: The Q4 2006 Alt-A production has a 30-day delinquency of 10.13% (this needs to be compared to the total pool standing at 5.40%). In Q3 the corresponding number was 8.40%. In Q1 when all was well the number was under 3%.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (2573)	3/16/2008 2:01:28 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 6370

How toxic? See: blownmortgage.com by Les H ... • Foreclosures rose 57% and repossessions rose 90% YOY in January • 30% of subprime loans written in 2005 and 2006 are already underwater • In Q4 07, 5.82% of all mortgages were delinquent (30 days past due), the highest level in 23 years; 0.83% were in foreclosure, an all-time high • Among subprime adjustable-rate mortgages in Q4 07, 20.02% were delinquent and 5.82% were in foreclosure ... Mortgage Losses Are Likely to Exceed $300 Billion

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (2573)	5/3/2008 1:36:34 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6370

Get ready for the second inning. We had a bounce; but this bounce is completed and we will go down to unseen levels. This applies to various banks. Regional banks with no risk management skills should go to zero, particularly in the hardest hit areas. (Vineyard bank is a good example...) Bofa, Wash Mutual, and for C, a double bottom test is in order. Also see here. This is larger than subprime and ARMs combined and "if it is not good it is zero" bloomberg.com &P Stops Rating Some Mortgage Bonds for First Time (Update4) By Jody Shenn May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's will stop rating new bonds composed of U.S. second mortgages, saying it's too hard to assess the debt while the housing slump continues. The recent deterioration of the loans has been ``unprecedented'' and the ``market segment does not allow for a meaningful analysis,'' New York-based S&P said in a statement. The ratings company hadn't previously refused to rank broad classes of securities linked to U.S. home loans since the mortgage-market crisis began unfolding two years ago, said Adam Tempkin, a spokesman. Investors and lawmakers have criticized S&P and Moody's Investors Service for failing to foresee the record surge in U.S. foreclosures and then being slow to downgrade debt, enabling looser lending ahead of the crash and costing bondholders. In response, the companies have announced a series of changes to models and methods. ``In terms of an entire category, an asset class, this is probably unprecedented,'' Tempkin said in a telephone interview, referring to the announcement today. The change covers bonds backed by closed-end second mortgages or one-time home equity loans, as opposed to equity lines of credit. On April 24, S&P cut $13.1 billion of second- mortgage bonds created last year, or 73 percent of the total. The unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. said today that it will continue to assess outstanding securities by looking at delinquency and default levels. Almost All Junk The downgrades last month left all of the securities with ratings of BBB or lower, compared with 20 percent before the action. BBB is S&P's second-lowest investment grade. About 96 percent dropped to non-investment-grade, or junk, assessments. ``The problem with seconds is it's either good, or it's zero,'' said Brad Golding, a managing director at Christofferson Rob & Co., a New York-based money manager. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in February by the most on record, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller home- price index. Prices dropped 12.7 percent from a year earlier, and have fallen every month since January 2007, the index shows. Issuance of U.S. second-mortgage or equity-line bonds tumbled 55 percent last year from the highest on record, to $33 billion, according to newsletter Inside MBS & ABS. None were created last quarter. S&P has refused to rate other types of debt in the past. For instance, it declined to rank Canadian asset-backed commercial paper until this year, citing the ability of banks to escape from providing emergency funding if a ``market disruption'' couldn't be proven by managers. The short-term debt market totaled almost $150 billion before collapsing last August, partly because of the clauses. Also today, Moody's said it appointed Jonathan Polansky, its group managing director of the asset finance Group, to a new position that will oversee its ongoing assessment of outstanding structured-finance securities. To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: May 1, 2008 14:43 EDT